国新国证期货早报-20250829

Variety Views - Stock Index Futures: On August 28, A-share major indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.14% to 3843.60, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.25% to 12571.37, the ChiNext Index rose 3.82% to 2827.17, and the STAR 50 Index rose 7.23% to 1364.60. The trading volume of the two markets was 2970.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 194.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index fluctuated widely, closing at 4463.78, up 77.66 [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: On August 28, the coke weighted index weakened, closing at 1672.5, down 8.0. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1170.9 yuan, up 11.2 [1][2]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The US sugar fluctuated narrowly on Wednesday. Affected by weak demand and lower spot quotes, the long positions of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on Thursday. At night, it continued to decline slightly under short - selling pressure. As of August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 72, up from 70 the previous week, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 2.7221 million tons, down from 2.9169 million tons the previous week [3]. - Rubber: The Thai Meteorological Department warned of heavy rain from August 28 to September 3, which may cause floods. Toyota's auto production and sales in July reached a record high. Affected by these factors, Southeast Asian spot quotes rose, and Shanghai rubber rose on Thursday but fell slightly at night under short - selling pressure. From January to July 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 889,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% [4]. - Soybean Meal: Internationally, on August 28, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The US Department of Agriculture reported that in the week ending August 21, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market year decreased by 189,200 tons, in line with market expectations, and the net export sales of next - year soybeans were 1.3726 million tons, higher than expected. The US soybeans are growing well, and the probability of weather speculation this year is decreasing. Domestically, on August 28, soybean meal futures weakened. The M2601 main contract closed at 3039 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. Currently, soybean crushing volume is high, and the inventory is increasing. The price of soybean meal is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [4][5]. - Live Pigs: On August 28, live pig futures prices weakened. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13,590 yuan/ton, down 1.13%. There are signs of slow recovery in demand during the back - to - school season, but the support for pig prices is limited. The supply of suitable - weight pigs is sufficient, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year remains high [5]. - Palm Oil: On August 28, palm oil futures declined, breaking through the previous high - level range. The main contract P2601 closed at 9414, down 0.91%. On August 27, the CNF quotes for 24 - degree palm oil imports for September and October shipments decreased by 1 - 5 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the landed duty - paid costs in South China decreased by 50 - 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - Shanghai Copper: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has been digested. LME copper inventory has accumulated slightly, and domestic refined copper social inventory is still at a low level. The spot processing fee for copper concentrate remains low, and the smelting end is performing well. The demand side is weak, and Shanghai copper continues to fluctuate within a range [6]. - Logs: On August 28, the 2511 contract of logs opened at 815, with a low of 810, a high of 825, and closed at 821.5, with an increase of 363 lots in positions. The 60 - day moving average provides support at 810 and resistance at 825. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The increase in foreign quotes drove up the domestic futures price. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the spot trading is weak [7]. - Cotton: On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,270 yuan/ton. On August 29, the minimum basis quote at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 900 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 139 lots compared with the previous trading day [7]. - Steel: On August 28, rb2601 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3372 yuan/ton. From late August to early September, northern steel mills and coke enterprises will implement temporary environmental protection restrictions, and demand is expected to improve in September. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside and downside [7]. - Alumina: On August 28, ao2601 closed at 3063 yuan/ton. Alumina inventory has been steadily accumulating, with a weekly accumulation of 5 - 7 million tons for four consecutive weeks. The supply and demand of the alumina market are both at a high level and relatively stable. Without a significant reduction in supply, the oversupply situation will continue [9]. - Shanghai Aluminum: On August 28, al2510 closed at 20,750 yuan/ton. The supply is stable, the inventory is moderate, and the cost support is strong. The demand is stable, and the price is expected to remain stable [9]. Influencing Factors - Coke: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and some northern coke enterprises have started production restrictions. However, due to the rapid decline in blast furnace profits, it is difficult for coke prices to continue to rise. The supply - demand gap still exists [3]. - Coking Coal: A coal mine accident in Fujian has raised concerns about increased safety supervision. Mine supply has recovered this week, and the operating rate of coal washing plants has declined slightly. Upstream inventory has increased again, and downstream inventory has decreased [3].