新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-29）-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar (Rolled steel): Oscillation with a weak bias [2] - Glass: Oscillation with a weak bias [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Decline [4] - Gold: Oscillation with a strong bias [4] - Silver: Oscillation with a strong bias [4] - Pulp: Weak operation [5] - Logs: Range oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Wait - and - see [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Reverse spread [10] - PR: Wait - and - see [10] - PF: Wait - and - see [10] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex trend, with different products having different outlooks based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals, policy factors, and geopolitical situations. For example, the black industry is affected by production restrictions and demand trends; the financial market is influenced by policies and market sentiment; precious metals are driven by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data; and agricultural products are affected by weather, planting area, and consumption demand [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The fundamental contradiction is not prominent. The probability of an interest rate cut in September is high, supporting commodities. The expectation of domestic blast furnace production restrictions has been temporarily disproven, and the impact on demand is small. Global iron ore shipments have decreased slightly, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure. Terminal demand is weak, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Coal and coke: Coal supply accidents are frequent, and production reduction expectations may cause supply fluctuations. Coal mine inventories are at a low level, and downstream demand is high. Short - term price adjustments are limited, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the market sentiment is released [2]. - Rolled steel (Rebar): The production restriction policy in Tangshan is clear, but the reduction is less than expected. Overall demand is difficult to show a counter - seasonal performance, and there will be a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. Spot demand for rebar is weak, and futures prices are looking for support after a significant adjustment [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly in the short term. The key for the 01 contract is the cold - repair path. The long - term demand is difficult to recover significantly due to the adjustment of the real estate industry [2]. Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The market has rebounded, and it is recommended to increase risk preference and long - position holdings. The release of relevant policies and international trade exchanges may have an impact on the market [2][4]. - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates are fluctuating, and the trend of Treasury bonds is weak. It is recommended that long - position holders hold lightly [4]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. Factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold - buying behavior support the prices of gold and silver. Although some factors may cause short - term fluctuations, the upward - driving logic has not completely reversed [4]. Light Industry - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices is weak, and the paper - making industry has low profitability and high inventory pressure. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and prices are expected to decline [5]. - Logs: The daily shipment volume of logs is relatively stable, and the supply pressure is not large. The cost support is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Oils and Fats - Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil: The demand for soybean oil is promising due to strong export sales and relevant policies. The production and inventory of palm oil are in a certain state, and the demand growth provides long - term support. The inventory of domestic oils shows different trends, and prices are expected to oscillate after a previous sharp rise [5]. Oilseeds and Meals - Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 1, and soybean No. 2: The US soybean planting area has been significantly reduced, but the single - yield is expected to increase. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias, with weather and import volume being key factors [5]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs is decreasing, and the supply is increasing. The demand is restricted by high temperatures, and prices are expected to oscillate with a weak bias in the future [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather and geopolitical factors, and the demand is relatively stable. The inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to be strong in the short term [10]. Polyester - PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF: These products are affected by factors such as the geopolitical situation, oil prices, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost. Different products have different outlooks, including oscillation, wait - and - see, and reverse spread [10].