五矿期货农产品早报-20250829

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The global protein raw material supply is in surplus, and the upward momentum of soybean import costs needs to be tested. The soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the cost range. The palm oil market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the sugar price is likely to continue to fall, while the cotton price may have upward momentum in the short - term. The egg market is in a negative cycle of oversupply, and the pig market follows a range - bound trading idea [3][5][10][13][16][18][20] Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - Market Situation: On Thursday, US soybeans rose slightly, while domestic soybean meal was relatively weak due to high inventory and sufficient supply expectations. The domestic soybean meal spot price fell slightly by 0 - 20 yuan/ton, and the downstream inventory days increased slightly to 8.51 days. Last week, 2.27 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China, and this week, 2.5283 million tons are expected to be crushed. The soybean inventory decreased slightly, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly, remaining at a high level [3] - Weather and Output: The rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas is expected to be low in the next week, and it has been dry in August. The USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, and the US soybean output has decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month [3] - Trading Strategy: The soybean import cost has been weakly stable recently. It is expected that the domestic soybean meal market will start to reduce inventory in September, supporting the oil mill's profit. It is recommended to buy on dips at the lower end of the soybean meal cost range and pay attention to the profit and supply pressure at the high end [5] Oils - Important Information: From August 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased, and the production first increased and then decreased. The estimated output of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is 19.9 million tons. In the fourth quarter, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to decline seasonally, and India's pre - Diwali restocking demand will support the price [7] - Trading Strategy: The US biodiesel policy draft may suppress soybean oil exports, and the potential for palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia is insufficient. The palm oil market is expected to be strong in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy [10] Sugar - Key Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fall. The Brazilian port's sugar - waiting - to - be - shipped quantity decreased. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to be high this season, and the northern hemisphere's main producing countries may also increase production in the new season [12] - Trading Strategy: The probability of a significant rebound in the raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to fall [13] Cotton - Key Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fluctuate. The 2025 cotton import tariff - rate quota for processing trade is 200,000 tons. As of August 24, 2025, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 54% [15] - Trading Strategy: Considering the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season and the low domestic cotton inventory, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton price may have upward momentum [16] Eggs - Spot Information: The national egg price was mostly stable, with a few slightly adjusted. The supply was normal, the downstream sales were slow, and the trade - link inventory increased slightly [17] - Trading Strategy: The egg market's negative cycle of oversupply has not been broken. It is not advisable to be overly optimistic about the egg price. From the perspective of capital game, it is not advisable to short excessively, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [18] Pigs - Spot Information: The domestic pig price showed a mixed trend of rising, falling, and remaining stable. The northern large - scale farms' slaughter decreased, and the demand increased, while the supply and demand in the south both increased [19] - Trading Strategy: The futures logic is to relieve pressure due to oversupply. The short - term market is range - bound. The long - term spread inversion strategy continues [20]