Report on Investment Analysis of Multiple Commodities 1. Core Views - Overall Market: The market for various commodities shows a mixed picture with different factors influencing each commodity's price movement. Some are affected by supply - demand dynamics, while others are influenced by geopolitical events, policy changes, and economic data releases [1][2][4]. - Short - term Outlook: Most commodities are expected to experience short - term price fluctuations, with some showing a tendency to trade within a range, while others may have a slightly bullish or bearish bias depending on their specific fundamentals [1][4][5]. 2. Summary by Commodity Metals - Gold: A lawsuit by Fed理事Lisa Cook regarding the Fed's independence could impact the market. If the Fed loses, concerns about US stagflation may increase, which is positive for gold. Fed rate - cut expectations have led to a short - term gold rebound, but the medium - term trend needs further observation [2]. - Silver: US Q2 GDP growth was higher than expected, and inflation was lower than expected. After the data release, risk appetite increased, and combined with Fed rate - cut expectations, silver is expected to trade with a slightly bullish bias [6]. - Iron Ore: With increased end - of - month production restrictions at Tangshan steel mills, iron ore demand has decreased. Overseas shipments and arrivals have declined slightly, and port inventories are expected to increase. The price is expected to trade in a range, supported by post - parade restocking expectations [4]. - Steel (Rebar): Rebar production has increased, inventories have risen for five consecutive weeks, and apparent demand has slightly recovered. The supply is high, and demand is weak. However, with compressed steel mill profits and improved export orders, the rebar futures may trade in a narrow range [5]. - Copper (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in metals category): No relevant information in the provided text. Energy - Crude Oil: Short - term price movements are uncertain due to the Russia - Ukraine situation. In the long - term, the oil market faces significant supply pressure. Currently, the production increase expectation is pitted against stable inventories, and the price is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias in the short - term [11][12]. - Natural Gas (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in energy category): No relevant information in the provided text. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: Due to expected increases in new soybean production and a weakening futures market, the spot price of soybeans is expected to face downward pressure in the short - term. Policy regulation and terminal restocking demand need to be closely monitored [8]. - Palm Oil: Crude oil prices have dragged down the entire oil market. Despite high - volume low - price replenishment in the market, the price of palm oil is expected to experience a short - term correction and trade with a bearish bias [8]. - Corn (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category): No relevant information in the provided text. - Wheat (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category): No relevant information in the provided text. - Rice (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category): No relevant information in the provided text. Others - Coking Coal: The fundamentals of coking coal have not changed significantly. Supply is restricted by over - production checks and heavy rainfall in Shanxi, while demand is under pressure due to pre - parade environmental production restrictions at coking plants and steel mills. The price is expected to trade in a range [1]. - Long - and Medium - term Treasury Bonds: Multiple small and medium - sized banks have cut RMB deposit rates, which is beneficial for liquidity. In the context of increased risk appetite and a strong stock market, long - term bonds are expected to trade with a bearish bias [5]. - Rubber: Supply is in an increasing phase but is affected by weather, resulting in slower - than - expected growth. Demand is weak, with a decline in tire production and high inventory pressure. The price is expected to trade in a range [12]. - PTA: PTA production and social inventories have decreased, and downstream polyester demand has shown a slight recovery. However, the sustainability of the demand increase is uncertain. Given the weakening PX supply - demand and crude oil prices, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [13]. - Methanol: Domestic methanol production has increased, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The inland market is weak, while the port market has stable basis and acceptable trading volume. The price is expected to trade in a range, and short - positions should be held with caution [10]. - Plastic (LLDPE): The price of LLDPE has been weak, production has decreased, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Cost support has strengthened. The price is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias in the short - term [11]. - Soda Ash: The production of soda ash has decreased, and inventories have also declined slightly. The float glass market is stable, and downstream demand is mainly for low - price replenishment. The price of soda ash is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [9]. - Live Hogs: The shrinkage of farms has led to a slight improvement in low - price transactions. With the current low price, there is a growing sentiment of expecting a price increase. The price may rebound in the short - term, and it is recommended to take short - long positions. Farmers can choose the right time for hedging [6].
宁证期货今日早评-20250829
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-29 01:30