Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The capital market is supported by policies, but the market may experience increased volatility in the short term after recent continuous rises. The general approach is to go long on dips [3]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and potentially continued loose funds, interest rates are expected to have downward space, but the bond market may be in a short - term volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - Precious metals prices are generally supported. There is a possibility of a 75 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed this year, and silver prices are expected to rise more significantly than gold [7][8]. - Most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as Fed policy and industry supply - demand, with prices showing different trends of strong or weak fluctuations [10][11][12]. - The demand for steel products is weak, and if the demand cannot improve effectively, prices may continue to decline. The raw material side is relatively stronger [25]. - The price of iron ore is expected to be in a short - term volatile state, and attention should be paid to the progress of steel mill production restrictions [27]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to be volatile in the short term, and their long - term trends are affected by policies and market supply - demand [28][29]. - The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by market sentiment and fundamentals, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see [30][31]. - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon are affected by policies, supply - demand, and inventory, and there are uncertainties [34][37]. - The prices of rubber are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a mid - term bullish view [43]. - The current oil price is undervalued, presenting a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [44]. - The supply pressure of methanol is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see; the supply of urea is temporarily relieved, and it is recommended to go long on dips; the price of styrene may rebound after the inventory reduction inflection point; the PVC market has a poor fundamental situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies; the ethylene glycol market has a downward pressure on valuation in the medium term; the PTA and PX markets are expected to follow the trend of crude oil and go long on dips; the price of polyethylene may oscillate upwards; the price of polypropylene is in a short - term balanced state [45][46][47][49][50][51][52][53][55]. - The price of live pigs is expected to be stable or rise in the north and stable in the south in the short term, with a range - bound trading strategy; the price of eggs is expected to be mostly stable with a few declines, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds; the price of soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to go long on dips; the price of oils is expected to be volatile and strong; the price of sugar is likely to continue to fall; the price of cotton may have upward momentum in the short term [57][58][59][60][61][63][64][65]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Index Futures - News: The government promotes the construction of a new real - estate development model, and some companies release performance and trading information [2]. - Basis ratio: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long - term, considering policy support and short - term market fluctuations [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts declined on Thursday. There are news about Sino - Canadian and Sino - US economic and trade exchanges and local government bond issuance [4]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted a net injection of 16.31 billion yuan on Thursday [5]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to have downward space in the long - term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short - term, considering economic data and the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices showed different trends. The prices are supported by economic data and Fed policy expectations. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: LME and SHFE copper prices rebounded. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile [10][11]. Aluminum - Market: LME and SHFE aluminum prices oscillated. The short - term price has support due to low inventory and expected demand improvement [12]. Zinc - Market: SHFE zinc index declined. The zinc market has an over - supply situation in the medium - term, but the price has short - term support [13]. Lead - Market: SHFE lead index rose. The short - term price has support, but there is a downward risk in the medium - term [14][15]. Nickel - Market: SHFE nickel price declined. The refined nickel supply is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be volatile [16]. Tin - Market: SHFE tin price rose. The supply and demand of tin are weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to be volatile [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The price of lithium carbonate declined. The fundamentals are slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to overseas supply and industrial news [18]. Alumina - Market: The alumina index rose. The short - term price has limited downward space, and it is recommended to wait and see [19]. Stainless Steel - Market: The stainless steel main contract price was stable. The short - term demand is weak, but there is an expectation of demand improvement in the peak season [20]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: The AD2511 contract price declined. The inventory is increasing, and the price may rise, but there is delivery pressure [21][22]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends. The demand for steel products is weak, and the price is under pressure [24][25]. Iron Ore - Market: The iron ore main contract price rose. The supply pressure is not significant in the short - term, and the price is expected to be volatile [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price declined, and the inventory decreased. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile, and the long - term trend is affected by policies [28]. - Soda Ash: The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term price center may rise [29]. Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron - Market: The manganese - silicon main contract rose slightly, and the silicon - iron main contract declined slightly. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon main contract price rose. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be volatile [33][34]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon main contract price rose. The price is affected by policies and market news, and there are uncertainties [35][37]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: NR and RU oscillated. The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and a mid - term bullish view is held [39][43]. Crude Oil - Market: WTI, Brent, and INE crude oil futures prices rose. The current oil price is undervalued, presenting a good layout opportunity [44]. Methanol - Market: The methanol 01 contract price rose slightly. The supply pressure is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. Urea - Market: The urea 01 contract price rose. The supply pressure is temporarily relieved, and it is recommended to go long on dips [46]. Styrene - Market: The styrene price declined. The price may rebound after the inventory reduction inflection point [47]. PVC - Market: The PVC01 contract price declined. The market has a poor fundamental situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies [49]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: The EG01 contract price declined. The supply is still excessive, and there is a downward pressure on valuation in the medium term [50]. PTA - Market: The PTA01 contract price declined. The supply is expected to be in a de - stocking state, and it is recommended to go long on dips [51]. p - Xylene - Market: The PX11 contract price declined. The PX is expected to maintain low inventory, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: The PE futures price declined. The price may oscillate upwards due to cost support and expected demand improvement [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: The PP futures price declined. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is in a volatile state [55]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: The domestic pig price showed different trends. The short - term price is expected to be stable or rise in the north and stable in the south, with a range - bound trading strategy [57]. Eggs - Market: The national egg price was mostly stable. The egg market has an over - supply situation, and it is recommended to reduce short positions or short on rebounds [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: The domestic soybean meal price declined slightly. The price is expected to be range - bound, and it is recommended to go long on dips [59][60]. Oils - Market: The domestic three major oils oscillated weakly. The price of oils is expected to be volatile and strong [61][63]. Sugar - Market: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price declined. The international and domestic sugar markets have an over - supply situation, and the price is likely to continue to fall [64]. Cotton - Market: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The short - term price may have upward momentum due to expected demand improvement [65].
五矿期货文字早评-20250829
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-29 01:27