宝城期货国债期货早报-20250829

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the overall trend of treasury bond futures is expected to be range - bound. In the short - term, both upward and downward movements are limited, with a forecast of consolidation. The main reasons are the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rise in the stock market's risk appetite, which restricts the rebound momentum of treasury bond futures. However, the anchor effect of policy interest rates limits the upward movement of market interest rates, providing strong support for treasury bond futures [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", the intraday view is "sideways with a weak bias", and the overall view is "sideways". The core logic is the decreased possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut and the rise in the stock market's risk appetite [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for varieties TL, T, TF, and TS is "sideways with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the reference view is "sideways". The core logic is that treasury bond futures fluctuated and slightly declined yesterday. With the monetary policy emphasizing implementation and detailed measures in the second half of this year and focusing on structural easing, the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased. The rise in the stock market's risk appetite attracts funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for treasury bonds. However, due to the anchor effect of policy interest rates, the upward movement of market interest rates is restricted, and treasury bond futures still have strong support [5].