宝城期货煤焦早报-20250829

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Report's Core View - For both Jiao Coal (JM) and Coke (J), the short - term, medium - term, and overall reference views are "oscillation". The intraday view is "oscillation weakening", and the medium - term view is "oscillation strengthening" [1][5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Jiao Coal (JM) - Price Trend: In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, it shows an oscillatory trend. The intraday view is oscillatory weakening, and the medium - term view is oscillatory strengthening [1][5]. - Core Logic: The fundamentals of Jiao Coal have no obvious changes. Super - production verification and heavy rainfall in Shanxi still suppress supply. Before the 9.3 parade, coking plants and steel mills are affected by environmental protection restrictions, so short - term demand also faces pressure. Although the impact of the "anti - involution" policy has been released, the coal industry will still respond to relevant policies, which may bring new positive news. Currently, long and short factors are intertwined, and the futures main contract oscillates within a range. Considering the "anti - involution" impact, the callback space may be limited [5]. Coke (J) - Price Trend: In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, it shows an oscillatory trend. The intraday view is oscillatory weakening, and the medium - term view is oscillatory strengthening [1][6]. - Core Logic: The eighth round of price increase for Coke has been blocked, and the game between upstream and downstream of the black industry chain has intensified, with the spot market temporarily stable. In the futures market, with the fermentation of the "anti - involution" theme, the market has entered the verification stage from the strong cost - side expectation. The long - short game has become more intense. Considering that the coal industry may further cooperate with the "anti - involution" policy, the cost - side news is still expected to form a positive support. After a short - term correction, Coke may show a characteristic of being easy to rise and difficult to fall in the long - term [6].