Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, the short - term may be dominated by shocks, and long - term investors may consider buying on dips [11]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the short - term may be volatile, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips [12]. - For black commodities, steel and ore prices are expected to have limited price movements and remain in a mid - term oscillatory market; coking coal and coke prices may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short term; ferroalloys suggest a mid - term rebound - selling strategy; for soda ash, maintain a high - selling strategy, and for glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach [14][17][18][19]. - In the non - ferrous and new materials sector, aluminum is expected to oscillate and decline at high levels in the short term, and alumina can be considered for short - term basis - repair long positions and mid - term high - selling; zinc prices will oscillate and weaken; lithium carbonate prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation; industrial silicon and polysilicon prices will be affected by policies and fundamentals and operate in a wide - range oscillation [22][23][24][25]. - In the agricultural products market, cotton can be observed for the time being; sugar prices are restricted by the expected increase in processed sugar; for eggs, adopt a short - term rebound - selling strategy; for apples, consider buying on dips or a 10 - 01 long - short spread strategy; for corn, adopt a high - selling strategy for the 01 contract or a 11 - 1 long - short spread strategy; for dates, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for live pigs, adopt a high - selling strategy for near - term contracts and consider low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [30][33][37][38][41][42]. - In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil is likely to shift to a supply - exceeding - demand pattern, and it can be considered to short on rallies; fuel oil prices will follow oil price fluctuations; plastics are expected to oscillate weakly; for rubber, consider buying on dips; methanol will continue to oscillate weakly; caustic soda can be considered for long positions after the basis is appropriate; asphalt follows oil prices; for the polyester industry chain, adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider a PX long - short spread strategy; LPG maintains a long - term bearish view; for paper pulp, observe port de - stocking and demand; for logs, observe the market; for urea, maintain an oscillatory view; for synthetic rubber, continue to focus on low - buying opportunities [45][46][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Development of Cities" was released, with goals set for 2030 and 2035 [6]. - China - Canada held the 28th China - Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee, and the Chinese delegation will visit the US [6]. - China will continue to impose anti - dumping duties on imported phenol from the US, EU, South Korea, Japan, and Thailand for 5 years [6]. - Guotai Junan International launched cryptocurrency trading services in Hong Kong [7]. - The US Q2 real GDP annualized revised value increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, and the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% [7]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000 [7]. - A lawsuit was filed regarding the independence of the US central bank [7]. - In July, China issued new local government bonds worth 703.2 billion yuan and refinancing bonds worth 510.3 billion yuan [7]. - Japan's 2 - year treasury bond auction demand hit a record low since 2009 [8]. Stock Index Futures - The short - term may be dominated by shocks, and long - term investors may consider buying on dips. A - share indices rebounded in the afternoon, and the market turnover was 3 trillion yuan. The government released relevant policies, and industrial enterprise profit data rebounded [11]. Treasury Bond Futures - The short - term may be volatile, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. The capital market was balanced and loose, and the stock - bond seesaw was not obvious [12]. Black Commodities Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - Supply policies have limited impact on the market, and the market will remain in an oscillatory pattern. Seasonal demand is expected to turn from weak to strong, and the mid - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. The impact of policies on exports in September is worthy of attention. Production may be limited during the parade, but the impact is expected to be small. The cost and profit situation is favorable for the raw material price valuation of the futures market. Steel and ore prices are expected to have limited price movements and remain in an oscillatory market [14][15][16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and operations require caution. Short - term coal mine safety inspections may be strict, and coking enterprises' production restrictions are starting. The supply of coking coal may be tight in the short term, and the demand from steel mills is strong, but there are also factors that put pressure on prices [17]. Ferroalloys - Adopt a mid - term rebound - selling strategy and do not chase short positions. The stock market's decline has affected commodity sentiment, and the supply of ferroalloys may increase until the end of September. The supply - demand situation is weakening, and the volatility may continue to decline [18]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, maintain a high - selling strategy and flexibly exit if the positive feedback atmosphere intensifies; for glass, adopt a wait - and - see approach. Soda ash production has declined recently but is expected to return to normal, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to increase, but there is potential delivery pressure. The inventory of glass has decreased, but the mid - stream inventory is large, and the demand is mainly driven by speculation [19]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to oscillate and decline at high levels in the short term, and long - term investors can consider buying on dips. Alumina can be considered for short - term basis - repair long positions and mid - term high - selling. The inventory of aluminum is not performing well, and the market sentiment is weak. The market is trading the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the demand for aluminum is expected to increase in the peak season. The supply of alumina is excessive, and the market sentiment is poor [22]. Zinc - Social inventory is increasing, and zinc prices will oscillate and weaken. The processing fee is rising, and refineries are resuming production. The off - season is approaching, and the supply is expected to increase, while the downstream demand is weak [23]. Lithium Carbonate - Prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. The tight supply - demand situation provides support for prices, and attention should be paid to changes in supply - side disturbances [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of key varieties in the previous anti - involution market. Polysilicon prices are mainly affected by policy progress, and the market sentiment has cooled slightly. The policy is expected to promote the exit of backward production capacity in the photovoltaic industry, and the market may enter a phase of near - month warehouse receipt valuation regression [25][28]. Agricultural Products Cotton - In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton may strengthen at high levels, and long - term investors can observe. The low domestic cotton inventory and seasonal peak demand support cotton prices. The price of US cotton rebounded overnight, and domestic cotton prices followed suit. Attention should be paid to macro - economic and supply - demand changes, and the long - term production increase pressure still exists [30][31][32]. Sugar - The low domestic sugar inventory is restricted by the expected increase in processed sugar. The import cost follows international sugar prices, and the technical indicators are weak, but there is support at the mid - August low. The international sugar price has demand support, and the Brazilian sugarcane production may decrease. The domestic sugar price is under pressure due to increased imports, but there is support from the mid - August low [33][35][36]. Eggs - The futures trading volume has reached a record high, and the market game has intensified. The 10 - contract has a weak reality and the expectation of concentrated old - hen culling. The current high egg production is difficult to reverse in the short term, and it is recommended to sell on rebounds for near - term contracts and operate with light positions [37]. Apples - Consider buying on dips or a 10 - 01 long - short spread strategy. The high - quality early - maturing apples in the western region are sold at high prices, and the price of stored apples is expected to be stable in the short term, while early - maturing apples are expected to maintain the high - quality - high - price trend [38][39][40]. Corn - Adopt a high - selling strategy for the 01 contract or a 11 - 1 long - short spread strategy. The domestic corn price is weak, and the futures price has strengthened due to short - covering. The corn market sentiment is bearish, with pressure on both supply and demand sides [41]. Dates - Adopt a wait - and - see approach. The rainy weather in some areas of Xinjiang may affect the quality of dates, and the futures price is strong. The transaction price in the production area is stable, and the price in the sales area has changed slightly [42]. Live Pigs - Adopt a high - selling strategy for near - term contracts and consider low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract. The spot price is weak, and the end - of - month price increase expectation has been falsified. The supply is high, but the inventory has decreased recently, and the government's storage policy has boosted the market sentiment [42][43]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - It is likely to shift to a supply - exceeding - demand pattern, and it can be considered to short on rallies. The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has affected the market, and the market has returned to trading based on weak fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the progress of US - Russia negotiations and the OPEC+ quota adjustment in early September [45]. Fuel Oil - Prices will follow oil price fluctuations. The Brent crude oil price is rebounding, and the demand for crude oil still exists, but the long - term issue of supply surplus needs to be resolved. The domestic refinery's demand for raw materials affects the fuel oil market, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory is increasing [46]. Plastics - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly. The positive sentiment brought by the elimination of backward production capacity in the petrochemical industry has faded, and the supply pressure is large, while the downstream demand is weak [47]. Rubber - Consider buying on dips and be cautious when chasing high prices. There are no obvious short - term contradictions in the fundamentals, and the upstream losses and downstream demand recovery provide support for prices [48]. Methanol - It will continue to oscillate weakly. The overall sentiment in the chemical industry has cooled, and the supply pressure is large. The port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [48][49]. Caustic Soda - Consider long positions after the basis is appropriate. The spot price is strong, and the futures price is relatively strong compared to other chemical products. The supply is low - inventory, and the demand is increasing [50]. Asphalt - Follows oil prices. The asphalt market is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with only rigid demand support, and the inventory is decreasing as expected [51]. Polyester Industry Chain - Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider a PX long - short spread strategy. The market sentiment has declined, and the PX price is under pressure, but there is support from the cost side. The PTA price is weak, but the downside space is limited. The ethylene glycol inventory has decreased, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices follow the raw material price decline [52]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Maintain a long - term bearish view. The short - term increase is due to reduced imports and the rebound of crude oil prices. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to exceed expectations, especially in the off - season for civilian use [53]. Pulp - Observe whether the port de - stocking continues and whether the spot trading and demand improve after Chenming's resumption of production. The market is affected by the weak performance of softwood pulp [54]. Logs - Observe the market. The spot price is stable, the supply may face pressure due to increased arrivals this week, but the demand is expected to improve in the peak season [55]. Urea - Maintain an oscillatory view. The spot price is recognized by the market, and the trading volume has increased. The supply has decreased due to factory maintenance, and the demand has increased [56]. Synthetic Rubber - Continue to focus on low - buying opportunities and be cautious when chasing high prices. The fundamentals are improving, the inventory is decreasing, and the peak demand season is approaching, but there is pressure from the raw material side and the overall weak commodity sentiment [57].
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250829
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-29 01:48