中辉有色观点-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, different investment stances are recommended: - Bullish: Gold, silver, copper, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate are recommended for long - term investment or short - term long positions [1]. - Bearish: Zinc is recommended for short - term short positions and long - term shorting on rebounds [1]. - Neutral with upward pressure: Lead, aluminum, and nickel are expected to face upward pressure on price rebounds [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to have a long - term upward trend. Short - term, they are affected by data, policy, and geopolitical factors. Gold has support at around 770, and silver at 9200. Long - term, they benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4]. - Base Metals: - Copper: In the short - term, observe support at 78000 - 78500 and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, it is favored due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6][7]. - Zinc: In the short - term, hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds as supply increases and demand decreases [1][9][10]. - Aluminum: In the short - term, take profit and wait and see. The price faces upward pressure on rebounds due to inventory and demand factors [1][13][14]. - Nickel: After taking profit, wait and see. The price rebounds are under pressure due to supply - demand imbalances in the nickel and stainless - steel industries [1][17][18]. - New Energy Metals: - Lithium Carbonate: Wait for stabilization at gaps. The market has strong supply and demand, with inventory declining for two consecutive weeks. In the short - term, focus on the 20 - day moving average support [1][21][22]. 3. Summary by Metal Gold - Market Review: U.S. data is mixed, with GDP growth revised up but employment confidence down. There are tariff compromises and concerns about the Fed's independence. Short - term, there is a lack of major risk events, while long - term, gold benefits from global factors [3]. - Logic: Short - term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low. Long - term, it will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - Strategy: Short - term, there is support at around 770, and pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 794. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Silver - Market Review: It follows the gold market in the short - term, with no obvious contradictions in its own market [1]. - Logic: In the long - term, global liquidity and re - industrialization demand are strong, while supply growth is limited [1]. - Strategy: Short - term, there is support at 9200. Long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged [4]. Copper - Market Review: The U.S. GDP is better than expected, and the dollar index has declined. The market is affected by upcoming events, and there is an increase in profit - taking of long positions [7]. - Logic: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decline. Demand will pick up with the approaching peak season. The long - term outlook is positive due to strategic importance and growing demand [6][7]. - Strategy: Observe support at 78000 - 78500, and consider going long on pullbacks. Long - term, be bullish on copper [7]. Zinc - Market Review: The price is oscillating weakly, testing the support at 22,000 [9]. - Logic: Zinc concentrate supply is increasing, while demand is weak during the off - season. There is inventory accumulation in the domestic market [9]. - Strategy: Hold short positions with partial profit - taking. Long - term, short on rebounds [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: The price rebounds are under pressure, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12]. - Logic: Overseas bauxite supply is abundant, and there is inventory accumulation in the domestic market. Although downstream demand is slightly improving, the price still faces pressure [13]. - Strategy: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprise operations [14]. Nickel - Market Review: The price rebounds and then falls, and stainless steel is under pressure [16]. - Logic: There is a supply - demand imbalance in the nickel industry, with an oversupply of refined nickel and a tight supply of nickel sulfate. The stainless - steel market is still in the off - season [17]. - Strategy: Take profit and wait and see. Pay attention to changes in downstream inventory [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opened significantly lower and then narrowed the decline [20]. - Logic: There is uncertainty about a mine's license renewal. Supply and demand are both strong, and inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks [21]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the 20 - day moving average support at [77500 - 79800] [22].