中辉期货热卷早报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Bearish [1][4][5] - Iron Ore: Cautiously bearish [1][6][7] - Coke: Bearish [1][10][11] - Coking Coal: Bearish [1][14][15] - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: Cautiously bearish [1][17][18] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The introduction of the steel industry's stable growth plan has limited positive effects. The overall steel market shows a trend of loose supply and demand, and there is a risk of a mid - term decline [1][4][5]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are neutrally bearish, with the market returning to a weak fundamental logic after the cooling of macro - sentiment [1][6][7]. - Coke has started the first round of price cuts, and there is a risk of a mid - term correction due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" atmosphere [1][10][11]. - Coking coal production recovers slowly, downstream replenishment slows down, and there is a downward risk in the mid - term [1][14][15]. - The supply and demand of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon tend to be loose, and the market sentiment is weak, with a focus on short - selling operations [1][17][18]. Summary by Variety Steel Products - Rebar - The stable growth plan of the steel industry has limited positive effects. Blast furnace profits have decreased but remain positive, and hot metal production remains at a relatively high level. Demand has increased month - on - month but is still lower than production, leading to an increase in inventory and a looser supply - demand margin. After the policy is implemented, there is a risk of continued decline [1][4][5]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 are 3205, 3246, and 3129 respectively, with increases of 33, 32, and 18 [2]. - Hot - rolled Coil - Production and apparent demand have decreased slightly month - on - month, inventory has increased slightly, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of production restrictions during the parade is limited, and the overall supply and demand show a loose trend. There is a mid - term decline risk under the weak fundamentals of steel [1][4][5]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 are 3372, 3380, and 3385 respectively, with increases of 31, 32, and 36 [2]. Iron Ore - Hot metal production has decreased, steel mills have completed replenishment, and port inventories have increased. The shipment of foreign mines has increased while arrivals have decreased, and the fundamentals are neutrally bearish. After the cooling of macro - sentiment, trading returns to fundamentals, and ore prices fluctuate weakly [1][6][7]. Coke - Spot prices have started the first round of cuts, and the game between steel and coke enterprises is obvious. Affected by the parade, production restrictions in some areas have led to a marginal contraction in supply. Hot metal production remains at a high level. There is a mid - term correction risk due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" atmosphere [1][10][11]. - Futures market: The latest prices of coke 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1672.5, 1760.0, and 1583.5 respectively [9]. Coking Coal - Affected by the parade, safety supervision in some areas has been upgraded, and coking coal production recovers slowly. Although hot metal production remains at a high level, downstream replenishment has slowed down, market sentiment has weakened, and Mongolian coal auctions have failed multiple times. The stable growth policy of the steel industry mainly focuses on stable supply for raw materials, with limited positive effects, and there is a mid - term downward risk [1][14][15]. - Futures market: The latest prices of coking coal 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts are 1175.0, 1222.0, and 1020.0 respectively [13]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - Manganese Silicon - Supply and demand tend to be loose, weekly production continues to increase, and the operating rate in Yunnan has reached a five - year high. The replenishment of steel mills has ended, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel tenders at the end of the month. The total shipment of the three major countries is 83.53 million tons, a decrease of 20.96 million tons month - on - month, mainly from South Africa. Arrivals have increased slightly, and port inventories are basically the same as last week. The cost side still has some support, and short - selling is the main strategy [1][16][17]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of manganese silicon 01, 05, and 09 are 5842, 2888, and 5734 respectively [16]. - Ferrosilicon - Weekly production continues to increase, demand has declined, and the fundamentals tend to be loose. Enterprise inventories have decreased month - on - month, and warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decrease, but the absolute level is still high, with relatively large inventory pressure. Short - selling on rallies is the main strategy [1][16][17]. - Futures prices: The latest prices of ferrosilicon 01, 05, and 09 are 5604, 5736, and 5426 respectively [16].