中辉期货今日重点推荐-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term decline in soybean meal due to inventory build - up and improved crop conditions, but limited downside space due to Sino - US trade costs [2][5] - Short - term decline in rapeseed meal due to high inventory, high warehouse receipts, improved Sino - Australian trade, and increased estimated production of Canadian rapeseed [2][7] - Short - term adjustment in palm oil with high - level consolidation due to the uncertainty of Malaysian inventory in August, but a bullish view on dips due to biodiesel policies [2][8] - Short - term adjustment in soybean oil, following palm oil, with demand improvement expectations but pressure from upcoming US soybean harvest [2] - Short - term adjustment in rapeseed oil due to high inventory, weak market transactions, and expected smooth import of Australian rapeseed [2] - Cautious bullish on cotton, with short - term long positions on dips and consideration of multi - empty rhythm change in September [2][12] - Cautious bullish on red dates, with a suggestion of buying on dips [2][14] - Cautious bullish on live pigs, not recommending short - term short - chasing and suggesting long positions on dips [2][17] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Price and Inventory: As of August 22, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 889.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 105.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.86 million tons [4]. - Market Analysis: Short - term decline due to inventory build - up and improved US soybean crop conditions, but limited downside due to Sino - US trade costs [2][5] Rapeseed Meal - Price and Inventory: As of August 22, the national main area rapeseed meal inventory was 61.38 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14 million tons [6]. - Market Analysis: High inventory, high warehouse receipts, and improved Sino - Australian trade cooled market speculation. The increased estimated production of Canadian rapeseed and harvest are bearish [2][7] Palm Oil - Price and Inventory: As of August 22, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.52 million tons. The estimated Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 25 increased by 36.41% compared to the same period last month [8]. - Market Analysis: High - level consolidation due to the uncertainty of Malaysian inventory in August, bullish on dips due to biodiesel policies [2][8] Soybean Oil - Market Analysis: Follows palm oil for adjustment. There is an expectation of demand improvement, but the upcoming US soybean harvest exerts pressure [2] Rapeseed Oil - Market Analysis: High inventory, weak market transactions, and expected smooth import of Australian rapeseed are bearish [2] Cotton - Price and Inventory: As of a certain time, domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 171.26 million tons, lower than the same period. The demand showed marginal improvement [11]. - Market Analysis: Cautious bullish. Short - term long positions on dips, and consideration of multi - empty rhythm change in September [2][12] Red Dates - Price and Inventory: As of a certain time, the physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9519 tons, a decrease of 167 tons compared to the previous week [14]. - Market Analysis: Cautious bullish, with a suggestion of buying on dips [2][14] Live Pigs - Price and Inventory: As of a certain time, the national sample enterprise live pig inventory increased by 1.17%, and the出栏量 decreased by 3.01%. The demand is expected to improve marginally [15][16]. - Market Analysis: Cautious bullish, not recommending short - term short - chasing, suggesting long positions on dips [2][17]