国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The overall view is that most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Market Outlook: Due to the repeated macro - expectations, it will experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][4]. - Fundamentals: The closing price of the I2601 futures contract was 790.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton with a 1.93% increase. The position increased by 17,754 hands. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (I2601 to Super Special) decreasing by 15 yuan/ton [4]. - News: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Outlook: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength for both is 0, showing a neutral view [2][6][7]. - Fundamentals: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,129 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton with a 0.55% increase. For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,385 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton with a 0.83% increase. There were changes in trading volume, position, and spot prices in different regions [7]. - News: On August 28, steel union weekly data showed changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand. In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data also had corresponding changes [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Outlook: Affected by market information disturbances, they will experience wide - range fluctuations within the day. The trend strength for both is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][10]. - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts changed slightly. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained stable, while the price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 30 yuan/ton. Various spreads also had corresponding changes [10]. - News: Multiple price quotes from the ferroalloy industry were released, and Ningbo Iron and Steel set a bid price for silicomanganese [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Market Outlook: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength for both is 0, showing a neutral view [2][14]. - Fundamentals: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1,175 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton with a 1.8% increase. The closing price of the J2601 coke futures contract was 1,672.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton with a 0.2% increase. Spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, and basis and spread values changed [14]. - News: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [14]. Logs - Market Outlook: It will fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2][16]. - Fundamentals: Different contract prices, trading volumes, and positions on the log futures market had various changes. Spot prices of most log varieties remained stable [17]. - News: On August 27, the Shanghai Municipal People's Government Office issued an implementation opinion on accelerating the renovation of urban villages in the city [19].