Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock market is in a phased shock interval with high trading volume, leading to significant shock amplitude. Short - term trading is influenced by the STAR 50 index, and funds are the main disturbing factor. Traders prefer blue - chip stocks. It's advisable to hold positions and take risk - avoidance measures before a clear consensus is formed [4]. - The bond market may need to repeatedly test the bottom due to the influence of the stock - bond seesaw, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic as stock market risks increase after reaching a high level [4]. - For the shipping index (European line) futures, the possibility of a shock - and - decline trend is relatively large, and attention should be paid to the risk of a low - level rebound of some contracts [6]. - Precious metals are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term and may maintain a strong state in the short - term. It's recommended to pay attention to the impact of the US PCE data on Friday night [10]. - Copper prices are expected to be mainly volatile, with both upward and downward pressures [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be shock - strong, alumina shock - weak, and cast aluminum alloy shock - strong [15]. - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom in the short - term [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a situation of long - short game, waiting for clear signals [18]. - Tin is expected to be slightly strong [20]. - Carbonate lithium is in a state of correcting over - valuation and oscillating adjustment. In the short - term, there may be a rebound opportunity, and in the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to short at high prices [22]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillating adjustment phase, and it's recommended to wait and see or trade based on an oscillating strategy [24]. - Lead is expected to be in a narrow - range shock [25]. - For steel products, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the short - term market may be bearish [26]. - Iron ore is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space in the short - term [27]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [28]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are recommended to go long lightly at the 60 - day moving average [29]. - For crude oil, it's recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [32]. - LPG is expected to be weak and shock, with the spot price rising to catch up [33]. - PTA - PX is following the decline of commodity sentiment, and it's recommended to short the processing fee and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [36]. - MEG - bottle chips are following the decline of commodity sentiment but showing resistance to decline. It's recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and conduct covered call option operations in the medium - to - long - term [37]. - PP is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern [39]. - PE is recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation [41]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in an oscillating decline, and for styrene, short - sellers should pay attention to stop - profit [43]. - Fuel oil is facing a situation where the downward driving force remains unsolved [44]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long - allocated as its valuation is low and the driving force is upward [45]. - Asphalt is in an oscillating consolidation phase, mainly following cost fluctuations [46]. - Rubber is expected to be in an interval shock, and it's recommended to expand the spread between light and dark rubber at low levels [49]. - Urea is in a pattern of having both support and suppression, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 and 1850 [50]. - For soda ash, the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [52]. - For glass, the market is in a weak balance state, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [53]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Macro - Domestic policies focus on promoting service consumption, and overseas markets show economic and employment resilience in the US. Attention should be paid to the upcoming US non - farm payroll report and price index [1]. - The Fed's policy shows marginal loosening signs, and the US dollar index is in a shock - consolidation pattern. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate is expected to be more likely to depreciate [2]. Stock Index - The stock market is in a phased shock interval with high trading volume and significant shock amplitude. Short - term trading is affected by the STAR 50 index, and funds are the main disturbing factor [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw and may need to repeatedly test the bottom, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic [4]. Shipping Index - The shipping index (European line) futures are affected by the reduction of spot cabin quotes and geopolitical risks, and the possibility of a shock - and - decline trend is relatively large [6]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the US PCE data on Friday night. It's recommended to go long on dips [8][10]. Copper - Copper prices are expected to be mainly volatile, with both upward and downward pressures due to factors such as the US dollar index and demand [13]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be shock - strong, alumina shock - weak, and cast aluminum alloy shock - strong, each with different influencing factors such as supply, demand, and cost [14][15]. Zinc - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom in the short - term, with support from inventory and potential demand improvement [16][18]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel are in a long - short game situation, and attention should be paid to factors such as nickel ore supply, nickel iron price, and stainless steel demand [18][19]. Tin - Tin is expected to be slightly strong, supported by supply - side tightness and inventory decline [20]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium is in a state of correcting over - valuation and oscillating adjustment. In the short - term, there may be a rebound opportunity, and in the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to short at high prices [21][22]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillating adjustment phase, and it's recommended to wait and see or trade based on an oscillating strategy [24]. Lead - Lead is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, with limited upward space and sufficient downward support [25]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The supply and demand of five major steel products both increase, but the inventory accumulates, and the short - term market may be bearish [26]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to oscillate, with limited downward space in the short - term due to support from coking coal and macro - sentiment [27]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke are expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock pattern in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and policy [28]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are facing supply pressure, and it's recommended to go long lightly at the 60 - day moving average [29]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The international crude oil market is in a multi - empty game, and it's recommended to short at high prices, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [30][32]. LPG - LPG is expected to be weak and shock, with the spot price rising to catch up, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [32][33]. PTA - PX - PTA - PX is following the decline of commodity sentiment, and it's recommended to short the processing fee and conduct 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [34][36]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG - bottle chips are following the decline of commodity sentiment but showing resistance to decline. It's recommended to go long on dips in the short - term and conduct covered call option operations in the medium - to - long - term [37]. PP - PP is expected to maintain a short - term shock pattern, affected by supply and demand factors [37][39]. PE - PE is recommended to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation [40][41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene are in an oscillating decline, and for styrene, short - sellers should pay attention to stop - profit [41][43]. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is facing a situation where the downward driving force remains unsolved, affected by supply, demand, and inventory factors [44]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long - allocated as its valuation is low and the driving force is upward [45]. Asphalt - Asphalt is in an oscillating consolidation phase, mainly following cost fluctuations, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [46]. Rubber and 20 - Rubber - Rubber is expected to be in an interval shock, and it's recommended to expand the spread between light and dark rubber at low levels, affected by supply, demand, and weather factors [48][49]. Urea - Urea is in a pattern of having both support and suppression, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1650 and 1850 [50]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and glass is in a weak balance state, both affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [52][53].
金融期货早评-20250829
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-29 02:10