国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: No new fundamental drivers, waiting for a pullback [2][4] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, undergoing a corrective consolidation [2][4] - Soybean meal: U.S. soybeans are stable, and Dalian soybean meal is oscillating [2][13] - Soybean: Oscillating [2][15] - Corn: Moving in an oscillatory manner [2][17] - Sugar: Trading in a narrow range [2][21] - Cotton: Pay attention to the new crop situation, with the futures price oscillating strongly [2][25] - Eggs: Weak sentiment in the distant end [2][29] - Hogs: New delivery warehouses are announced, leading to a near - month basis market [2][31] - Peanuts: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2][35] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil futures had a daytime closing price of 9,344 yuan/ton (-0.87%) and a night - time closing price of 9,354 yuan/ton (0.11%); soybean oil futures had a daytime closing price of 8,442 yuan/ton (-0.26%) and a night - time closing price of 8,352 yuan/ton (-1.07%) [5] - Macro and Industry News: As of the week of August 26, about 11% of U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 9% the previous week and 11% last year. The estimated U.S. soybean crush in July 2025 is 621.8 million short tons or 2072 million bushels, a 5.1% increase from June and a 7.2% increase from July 2024. Brazilian state of Paraná is expected to increase its 2025/26 soybean planting area by 1% and production by 4% [6][9] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [12] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking: DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3039 yuan/ton (-0.20%) during the day and 3037 yuan/ton (-0.30%) at night; CBOT soybean 11 was at 1048.25 cents/bushel (+0.00%) [14] - Macro and Industry News: On August 28, CBOT soybean futures closed with mixed results. As of the week of August 21, 2024/25 U.S. soybean net sales decreased by 189,200 tons, while 2025/26 net sales were 1,372,600 tons, a new high for the year [14][16] - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both 0 [16] 3.3 Corn - Fundamental Tracking: Jinzhou's closing price was 2,260 yuan/ton (+10); C2509 closed at 2,245 yuan/ton (1.45%) during the day and 2,240 yuan/ton (-0.22%) at night [18] - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn collection port prices increased slightly, while North China's corn prices decreased. New - season corn in Xinjiang is priced at 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton [19] - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [20] 3.4 Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: The original sugar price was 16.5 cents/pound (+0.06), the mainstream spot price was 5950 yuan/ton (-10), and the futures main contract price was 5602 yuan/ton (-18) [21] - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - evaluated, and India's monsoon precipitation has decreased. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July (+320,000 tons). CAOC estimates domestic sugar production and consumption for 24/25 and 25/26 seasons. ISO estimates a 24/25 global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons [21][22][23] - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [24] 3.5 Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: CF2601 closed at 14,070 yuan/ton (-0.04%) during the day and 14270 yuan/ton (1.42%) at night; ICE cotton futures rose slightly [25] - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading was generally quiet, and the cotton yarn market's trading slowed down. U.S. cotton's weekly export sales data was average, with a net increase of 179,300 bales in the 25/26 year as of August 21 [25][26] - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [28] 3.6 Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: Egg 2509 closed at 2,843 yuan/500 kilograms (-2.27%), and Egg 2601 closed at 3,310 yuan/500 kilograms (-1.66%) [29] - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [29] 3.7 Hogs - Fundamental Tracking: Henan's spot price was 13,780 yuan/ton (0); Hog 2509 closed at 13,300 yuan/ton (-145) [31] - Market Logic: In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increased, supply pressure is difficult to reverse in the near term. The 11 - 1 reverse spread can be considered. The storage policy has been implemented, and the 9 - month contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost [33] - Trend Intensity: Hog trend intensity is - 1 [32] 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: Liaoning 308 common peanuts were priced at 7,700 yuan/ton (-200); PK510 closed at 8,016 yuan/ton (-0.47%) [35] - Spot Market Focus: In some peanut - producing areas in Henan, the trading improved, and most areas' prices were stable or slightly stronger. New peanuts are expected to be listed around September 20 [36] - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37]