生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250829

Report Overview - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Pig Daily Report - Author: Shi Xiangying [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pig price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [4] - From the data of sows and piglets, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and it's difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under abundant supply [4] - The price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of retail farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices to some extent [4] - If farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Dynamics - On August 28, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2] - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2] - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) increased its position by 3,370 lots today, with a position of about 75,000 lots. The highest price was 13,750 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,570 yuan/ton, and it closed at 13,590 yuan/ton [2] 2. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of reproductive sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs will increase overall in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. On the demand side, the consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3] - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may fluctuate and strengthen [3] - The short - side logic includes slow and difficult weight reduction by farmers, incomplete release of supply pressure, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited support of demand for pig prices as the third quarter is not the peak consumption season. The long - side logic includes that farmers have reduced weight, which is beneficial to the future market; the strong resilience of spot prices indicates that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the short - side thinks; the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak consumption season of live pigs [3] 3. Strategy Suggestion - The view is that the market will fluctuate and adjust [4] - The core logic is based on sow and piglet data, the pig slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs is expected to continue to strengthen, which will weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, the pig price may fluctuate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] 4. Market Overview - The national average pig slaughter price on August 28 was 13.62 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg or 0.15% from the previous day. The slaughter prices in Henan and Sichuan were 13.73 yuan/kg (up 0.05 yuan/kg or 0.37%) and 13.35 yuan/kg (down 0.11 yuan/kg or - 0.82%) respectively [6] - Futures prices of various contracts generally declined. For example, the 01 contract was 13,940 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton or - 0.99% [6] - The main basis in Henan was 140 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton or 315.38% from the previous day [6] 5. Key Data Tracking - It shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, the price differences between different contracts, etc. [14]