长江期货市场交易指引-20250829

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, recommend buying on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommend holding a wait - and - see stance [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommend range trading; bearish on glass, expect weak performance [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Bullish on copper at low levels, recommend moderate long positions; neutral on aluminum, recommend buying on dips; bearish on nickel, recommend waiting or shorting on rallies; neutral on tin, silver, and gold, recommend range trading [1][10][11][14][15] - Energy and Chemicals: Neutral on PVC, expect weak oscillations; neutral on caustic soda, expect oscillations; neutral on styrene, expect weak oscillations; neutral on rubber, expect oscillations; neutral on urea and methanol, expect oscillations; neutral on polyolefins, expect wide - range oscillations; recommend shorting 01 and going long on 05 for soda ash [1][17][19][21][22][24][26][27][29] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, expect oscillations; bullish on apples, expect strong oscillations; neutral on jujubes, expect oscillations [1][32][33] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Bearish on hogs and eggs, recommend shorting on rallies; neutral on corn, expect range oscillations; neutral on soybean meal, expect limited upside; neutral on oils and fats, expect high - level oscillations [1][35][38][40][42][44] Core Views - The A - share market is expected to remain strong in the short term due to favorable fundamentals, regulatory support, and reasonable valuations. The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect and short - end constraints, and investors should wait for market pressure to ease [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as production resumption, demand recovery, and inventory levels, and most varieties are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern [7][8] - The non - ferrous metals market is influenced by macro policies, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors. Some varieties have upward potential, while others are affected by supply surpluses and should be traded according to market conditions [10][11][14] - The energy and chemicals market is affected by factors such as cost, supply, demand, and policies. Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties need to pay attention to policy and cost disturbances [17][19][21] - The cotton and textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand changes, seasonal factors, and new crop production expectations. Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the short term but face downward pressure in the future [32] - The agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, and seasonal consumption. Some varieties are under pressure, while others are expected to oscillate [35][38][40] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: On Thursday, the A - share market rose, and the market is expected to remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5] - Government Bonds: The bond market was weak on Thursday, and the curve shape is flat. Short - term investors should pay attention to redemption and wait for market pressure to ease [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: Coal prices continued to decline, and production resumed after rainfall. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term, and range trading is recommended [7] - Rebar: Affected by the steel industry's growth - stabilization plan, rebar prices rose. The supply - demand situation is weak in reality, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term, with range trading recommended [7][8] - Glass: Glass futures continued to be weak. High inventory is the main factor suppressing prices. Near - month contracts may decline slightly, and the main 01 contract should be observed [8] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The Jackson Hole meeting and domestic policies boosted copper prices. The demand is expected to increase in the future, and it is recommended to hold long positions at low levels [10][11] - Aluminum: The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak season transition. It is recommended to buy on dips for electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, and wait and see for alumina [10][11][12] - Nickel: The nickel industry has a long - term supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate weakly [14] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is improving limitedly, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading [15] - Silver and Gold: Powell's dovish speech and trade negotiation results supported precious metal prices. It is recommended to buy on dips [15][16] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: PVC has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [17][18][19] - Caustic Soda: The spot price increase slowed down, and the market is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to downstream stocking and export [20][21] - Styrene: The chemical market weakened, and styrene's supply - demand is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [21][22] - Rubber: The new rubber release is slow, and the inventory is decreasing. The rubber price is expected to oscillate strongly within the range [22][23] - Urea: The supply of urea is increasing, and the demand is scattered. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong [24] - Methanol: The supply of methanol is increasing, and the port inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [26] - Polyolefins: The supply of polyethylene decreased, and the demand increased slightly. Polyolefins are expected to oscillate, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [27][28] - Soda Ash: The spot market is weak, and the supply is surplus. It is recommended to short 01 and go long on 05 [30][31] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Global cotton supply - demand is improving, but new crop production may put downward pressure on prices. Hedging preparations are recommended [32] - Apples: Early - maturing apples have strong prices, and the market is expected to remain strong [33] - Jujubes: Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar - increasing stage. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term [33] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: The spot price is weak, and the supply is large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [35][37] - Eggs: The egg price may rebound slightly in the short term, but the supply is high in the long term. It is recommended to short on rallies [38][39] - Corn: The supply is sufficient, and the new crop may face selling pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [40][41][42] - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply is abundant in September - October, and the price is under pressure but supported by cost [42][43][44] - Oils and Fats: The three major oils are expected to oscillate at high levels. It is recommended to conduct range trading and gradually exit the palm oil 1 - 5 spread long strategy [44][45][49]