苹果产业风险管理日报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, with few trading points on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the opening price of early - maturing apples, which is higher than last year and sells well. The recent increase in the futures market is mainly affected by low inventory, early - maturing apple prices, and sales. However, the quality of early - maturing apples is uneven, and there are concerns about late - maturing Fuji apples. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market [3]. - Bullish factors include low inventory in apple - producing areas and unstable weather in production areas that may lead to a large reduction in production in the Northwest [4][5]. - Bearish factors include the overall apple production reduction being less than expected according to bagging data, and the peak season of seasonal fruits impacting apple sales, along with weak consumer demand [7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Contents Apple Price Range Forecast - The predicted monthly price range for apples is 8100 - 8600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.1% [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions Inventory Management - When worried about a bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, for long - position inventory, sell 50% of AP2510 futures contracts at 8500 - 8600 to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, sell 50% of AP2511C8600 call options at 100 - 120 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the apple price rises [3]. Procurement Management - When worried about a decrease in old - crop apple inventory, a reduction in new - crop apple production, and high purchase prices, for short - position inventory, buy 50% of AP2510 futures contracts at 8100 - 8150 to lock in procurement costs. Also, buy 50% of AP2511P7900 put options at 90 - 100 to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the apple price falls [3]. Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - On August 29, 2025, different apple futures contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) had different closing prices, daily and weekly percentage changes. Spot prices of different apple varieties also had corresponding price and percentage changes. The futures spread and basis also showed different trends [7][8]. Apple Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 33.97 (with a weekly decrease of 5.48), and according to Zhuochuang was 35.35 (with a weekly decrease of 5.07). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu, etc., all decreased. The arrival volume of apples at some wholesale markets in Guangdong increased [9].