资产价格点评：人民币突破后的悬念和影响

Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the RMB is seen as a concentrated release of previously "stagnant" gains, influenced by both policy and stock market movements[1] - Since the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22, the RMB has appreciated significantly, with the central bank's midpoint rate adjusted up by 258 pips since August 25[2] - The RMB's previous stagnation, with only a 1.2% increase since January despite a 10% decline in the USD index, created momentum for this appreciation[3] Group 2: Market Interactions - The strong rebound in the A-share market on August 28 coincided with the RMB's rapid appreciation, indicating a restoration of market sentiment[3] - The A-share market has shown a notable profit effect compared to US markets, leading to a potential inflow of funds back into China[3] - The RMB's recent rise is not solely due to cross-border capital inflows; it is also seen as an attractive carry currency, prompting institutional buying[4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The RMB's appreciation trend is expected to continue, with potential to reach around 7 against the USD if the central bank eases restrictions[6] - The central bank may adopt a gradual approach to adjusting the midpoint rate to avoid excessive market volatility[6] - The shift in global asset allocation towards higher-yielding RMB assets is likely to support the A-share market and enhance confidence in economic recovery[6]