螺纹钢周报：承压运行-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Since mid - August, the spot and futures prices of rebar have weakened again, and the futures price has dropped significantly. The market is under the influence of multiple negative factors, and under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the rebar price is under pressure, but the cost increase may limit the downside space. It is expected that the steel price will show a trend of bottom - seeking through oscillation, and the performance of peak - season demand should be focused on [2][4] Summary According to Related Content Price Performance - Since mid - August, the futures price of the rebar main contract has dropped from 3,274 yuan/ton to a minimum of 3,097 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of nearly 5.4%. The spot price in the East China mainstream area has dropped by 80 - 110 yuan/ton during the same period, and the basis has strengthened [2] Market Negative Factors - Market sentiment has changed, the "anti - involution" trading logic has cooled down, and the previously leading varieties have started high - level adjustments. The black industry chain is restricted by its weak fundamentals, and the overall upward momentum is insufficient. The near - month rebar contracts are suppressed by the delivery logic, and the long - position willingness to take delivery is low [2] Inventory Situation - As of the week of August 22, the total rebar inventory was 6.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 198,500 tons, and it has accumulated for four consecutive weeks. The inventory sales ratio is 3.116, reaching a high in recent years. The inventory in some major consumption areas has accumulated rapidly and is higher than that of the same period last year [3] Production Status - The weekly output of rebar is 214,650 tons, which has declined for two consecutive weeks, with a cumulative decrease of 65,300 tons. The reduction mainly comes from long - process steel mills. Currently, long - process steel mills are in good profit condition, and short - process steel mills have not significantly reduced production. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 75.69%, still at a high level this year [3] Demand Performance - As of the week of August 22, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 194,800 tons, remaining at a low level in recent years. The cement outbound volume and concrete shipment volume are also at low levels, with year - on - year decreases of 16.5% and 7.8% respectively. The real - estate market is still in weak recovery, and the basis strengthening may lead to profit - taking, which will increase demand - side pressure [4]