镍、不锈钢：多空交织，跟随大盘走势较多

Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Interwoven with Long and Short Positions, More Following the Overall Market Trend. August 28 Risk Management Daily Report [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai Nickel was volatile, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The expectation of interest rate cuts in September on the macro - level warmed up, the US dollar index declined, and non - ferrous metals were boosted, while there was no obvious logical change in fundamentals. Stainless steel also showed a volatile trend intraday, with some spot prices rising. Attention should be paid to the sentiment trend as it approaches the peak demand season in September and October. The macro - level should continue to focus on the September interest rate cut expectation and the trend of the US dollar index [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the nickel and stainless - steel market. Positive factors include the Indonesian APNI's plan to revise the HPM formula, shortening the nickel ore quota license period, potential increase in stainless - steel demand from the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station construction, and increased expectation of interest rate cuts in September. Negative factors include stainless steel entering the traditional off - season, high pure nickel inventory, seasonal increase in nickel ore inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and South Korea's plan to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [7]. Directory Summaries Price and Volatility Forecast - Shanghai Nickel price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The stainless - steel price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [3]. Risk Management Strategies Nickel - Inventory Management: When the product sales price drops and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio, and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - Procurement Management: If the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3]. Stainless Steel - Inventory Management: When the product sales price drops and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio, and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - Procurement Management: If the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4]. Market Quotes - Nickel: The latest price of Shanghai Nickel main continuous contract is 120,990 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change. The prices of Shanghai Nickel continuous contracts 1, 2, and 3 decreased by 0.63%, 0.64%, and 0.64% respectively. The LME Nickel 3M price is 15,300 US dollars/ton, with a - 0.61% month - on - month change. The trading volume is 129,831 lots, and the open interest is 92,205 lots [8]. - Stainless Steel: The latest price of the stainless - steel main continuous contract is 12,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0%. The prices of stainless - steel continuous contracts 2 and 3 decreased by 0.04% and increased by 0.04% respectively. The trading volume is 121,866 lots, and the open interest is 127,116 lots [11]. Inventory Situation - Nickel: Domestic social inventory is 40,872 tons, a decrease of 1,019 tons compared with the previous period. LME nickel inventory is 209,676 tons, an increase of 456 tons [12]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless - steel social inventory is 928,800 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons compared with the previous period. Nickel pig iron inventory is 33,111 tons, a decrease of 304 tons [13].