宝城期货热轧卷板周度数据-20250829

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are running stably. The production of plate mills is weakly stable, with the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreasing by 0.50 million tons week-on-week, indicating a slight contraction in supply. Considering the approaching major events and potential production restrictions, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the short term. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coils is also weakly stable, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 0.55 million tons week-on-week, and the high-frequency trading performance is weak. Although the downstream cold-rolled production remains high and stable, indicating some demand resilience, the low domestic and foreign price difference still requires caution regarding potential foreign demand concerns. Overall, the demand for hot-rolled coils shows some resilience, and the short-term production restrictions continue to have an impact. The supply-demand pattern is acceptable, providing support for prices. However, the concerns about foreign demand remain, and the supply contraction is unlikely to be sustained. The fundamental situation has not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is weak. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 322.79 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.50 million tons and a month-on-month change of 19.69 million tons. The same-period value is 324.74 million tons, with a year-on-year change of -0.50 million tons [2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.02%, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.23 percentage points, a month-on-month change of -0.22 percentage points, and the same-period value is 82.96% [2]. Demand - The apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 320.00 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.55 million tons and a month-on-month change of 15.27 million tons [2]. - The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 83.15 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.89 million tons and a month-on-month change of 3.14 million tons [2]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 365.46 million tons, with a decrease of 76.35 million tons compared to the previous period [2]. - The in-plant inventory is 79.68 million tons, with a decrease of 16.07 million tons compared to the previous period [2]. - The social inventory is 285.78 million tons, with a decrease of 60.28 million tons compared to the previous period [2].