华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250829

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - For building materials, the price is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Production Impact: Yunnan and Guizhou's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, and the expected resumption is from the 11th to the 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - Real Estate Transaction: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Market Situation: Building materials prices continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] - Later Concerns: Macro policies and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - Macro Situation: The market still worries about the Fed's independence. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is over 87% [2] - Demand Side: As August ends, the "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching. The weekly开工率 of downstream industries shows signs of recovery. The开工率 of domestic aluminum profile leading enterprises increased by 1.5 percentage points to 52%, and the overall开工率 of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7%. However, the开工 rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 56.4%, and it is expected to have limited upward space in September [3] - Inventory Situation: On August 28, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 620,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from Monday and 24,000 tons from the previous Monday. The absolute price of aluminum ingots dropped slightly, and the receiving sentiment improved, but it has not reached the level to stimulate large - scale replenishment [3] - Price Outlook: With repeated macro - interest - rate cut expectations, it is expected to be high in the near term, and subsequent attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [3][4]