国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250829

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless steel is likely to experience short - term low - level fluctuations [2][4]. - For lithium carbonate, inventory reduction is limited, and it will trade in a range [2][10]. - Industrial silicon investors should focus on the upside potential [2][13]. - For polysilicon, upstream inventory is being reduced, and market information should be closely monitored [2][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamentals: Data on futures prices, trading volumes, and various industry - related prices such as nickel imports, nickel bean premiums, and stainless - steel product prices are presented. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 120,990, down 770 from the previous day [4]. - News: Multiple events including potential export restrictions from Canada, new project production in Indonesia, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, and production cuts in an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park are reported [4][5][6]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamentals: Data on futures contracts (2509 and 2511), including closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest, as well as various price differentials and raw material prices are provided. For instance, the closing price of the 2509 contract is 78,140, down 900 from the previous day [10]. - News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, and inventory and production also declined slightly [11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamentals: Data on futures prices, trading volumes, open interest, price differentials, spot premiums, factory profits, and inventory levels for both industrial silicon and polysilicon are given. For example, the Si2511 closing price is 8,570, up 45 from the previous day [14]. - News: A large - scale photovoltaic component procurement project in Ningxia is announced [14]. - Trend Intensity: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [16].