铅锌日评：区间偏强-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Tight raw materials and peak - season expectations support lead prices. With Powell's dovish remarks, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increases, and lead prices are expected to remain range - bound [1] - The zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, while demand is in the off - season and inventory continues to accumulate. However, the overseas LME zinc inventory is decreasing. Powell's dovish remarks provide some support, and short - term zinc prices are expected to be range - bound [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,750 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 16,910 yuan/ton, up 0.12% [1] - The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic disk) was 1,983.50 dollars/ton, down 0.05%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.53, up 0.17% [1] - The trading volume of the futures active contract was 34,152 lots, down 30.90%, and the open interest was 49,909 lots, down 0.01%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 0.68, down 30.89% [1] - LME lead inventory was 262,500 tons, unchanged, and Shanghai lead warrant inventory was 58,151 tons, down 0.21% [1] Industry News - A large recycled lead smelter in East China will stop production in early September due to equipment maintenance, which may affect the recycled lead output by about 0.85 tons in September [1] - In September, SMMpb50TC price dropped 50 yuan/metal ton to 450 yuan/metal ton, and SMMpb60TC price dropped 30 dollars/dry ton to - 90 dollars/dry ton. The supply of lead concentrate remains tight [1] Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the supply of imported lead concentrate is tight, and the processing fee adjustment of domestic lead concentrate is relatively stable. The start - up of primary lead smelters is rising steadily, while the start - up of recycled lead smelters is at a relatively low level [1] - On the demand side, the terminal market shows no significant improvement, the peak - season effect is not obvious, and dealers mainly digest inventory [1] Zinc Market Price and Market Indicators - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 22,060 yuan/ton, down 0.63% from the previous day. The closing price of the futures main contract was 22,170 yuan/ton, down 0.63% [1] - The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic disk) was 2,787 dollars/ton, up 0.83%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.95, down 1.45% [1] - The trading volume of the futures active contract was 156,406 lots, up 36.01%, and the open interest was 114,628 lots, up 6.31%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio was 1.36, up 27.94% [1] - LME zinc inventory was 58,000 tons, unchanged, and Shanghai zinc warrant inventory was 36,037 tons, down 0.49% [1] Industry News - On August 27, Hudbay Minerals resumed operations in Snow Lake after the wildfire. The company expects full - scale operations to resume in early September [1] - On August 27, Ivanhoe Mines announced that the capacity - expansion bottleneck renovation project of the Kipushi zinc mine in Congo (Kinshasa) was completed ahead of schedule and under budget, with improved processing capacity and efficiency [1] Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc ore processing fees are rising, and the production profit and enthusiasm of smelters are improving, with an obvious upward trend in output [1] - On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventory. Some terminal enterprises stock up due to concerns about future production cuts, driving an increase in galvanizing start - up [1]