国投期货综合晨报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil may shift to a volatile trend before geopolitical risks further intensify, and short - selling opportunities after the peak season should be watched [2]. - Precious metals are in a volatile trend, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3]. - For various metals and industrial products, their prices are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and seasonal factors, and different trading strategies are suggested accordingly [4][5][6]. - For agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors like weather, trade policies, and supply - demand expectations, and corresponding investment outlooks are provided [34][35][36]. - In the financial market, the stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks, and a style of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained; the yield curve of treasury bonds is expected to steepen [46][47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 0.82%. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 2.392 million barrels. Before geopolitical risks further intensify, crude oil may turn to a volatile trend [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: After a sharp decline in oil prices, fuel - related futures also fell. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales and China's bonded marine fuel filling demand decreased year - on - year, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm was also low. The overall fundamentals are relatively more positive [21]. - Natural Gas: No relevant content. Metals - Copper: Overnight copper prices declined. The market is still cautious about the economic performance. High - level short positions should be held [4]. - Aluminum: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the overall decline of non - ferrous metals. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area [5]. - Zinc: Fundamentally, supply increases while demand is weak. Although the short - term downside space is limited, one should wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Shanghai nickel's rebound was blocked and it fell back. The overall inventory is still high, and one should look for short - selling positions [10]. - Tin: Overnight, both domestic and international tin prices broke through the integer - level resistance and expanded their gains. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and the market trading volume shrank. It is expected to be strongly volatile in general [11]. Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. The short - term market sentiment led to the weakening of the futures price. One should pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures are approaching the lower limit of the volatile range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [13]. - Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil: Night - session steel prices were weakly volatile. The market is under negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is relatively low. The short - term price is still under pressure [14]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures were volatile overnight. The overall supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Their prices decreased during the day. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and short - term volatility is high [16][17]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Affected by the auction of imported soybeans, the price of Dalian soybean meal continued to fall. The market is cautiously bullish on Dalian soybean meal in the medium - to - long - term [34]. - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: They showed a volatile adjustment. One can consider buying on dips in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term attention should be paid to soybean policy guidance [35]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The domestic rapeseed sector is in a short - term volatile consolidation pattern [36]. - Corn: The Dalian corn futures rebounded last night. Given the good growth of US corn and the expected domestic harvest, the futures may continue to be weakly traded at the bottom [38]. - Hogs: The spot and futures prices of hogs are both weak. It is expected that the hog price will remain weak in the medium - term [39]. - Eggs: The egg futures continued to set new lows with increased positions. One can consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips [40]. - Cotton: The international cotton market lacks strong positive factors and is expected to be volatile in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton should be bought on dips [41]. - Sugar: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar has insufficient positive factors. Sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [42]. - Apples: The futures price increased with increased positions. The short - term price may continue to rise, but there is a lack of positive factors on the supply side in the medium - to - long - term [43]. Financial Products - Stock Index: The stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks. The strategy of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained [46]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].