迦南智能（300880）：短期业绩承压，海外&新能源业务布局持续深化

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 400 million yuan, down 26.8% year-on-year, and net profit at 70 million yuan, down 44.5% year-on-year [3] - The decline in performance is attributed to adjustments in customer order delivery schedules and the impact of product structure on delivered goods [3] - The core business of smart metering and systems has shown weakness, with revenue dropping 36.3% year-on-year to 320 million yuan, primarily due to a slowdown in the bidding and delivery schedule of electric meters by the State Grid [4] - The company has made progress in its second growth curve, with breakthroughs in overseas and new energy businesses, including the establishment of a joint venture for international trade and successful bids for charging station products [5] Summary by Sections Performance Review - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 400 million yuan, a decrease of 26.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 70 million yuan, down 44.5% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 25.8%, down 5.4 percentage points [3] Operational Analysis - The traditional core business of smart metering and systems saw a significant revenue decline of 36.3% year-on-year to 320 million yuan, with a gross margin decrease to 28.3% [4] - The revenue from lower-margin metering boxes and accessories increased by 85.4% to 80 million yuan, contributing to the overall decline in gross margin [4] - Expectations for recovery in the core business are based on the anticipated resumption of the State Grid's bidding schedule in the second half of the year [4] Growth Prospects - The company is advancing its second growth curve with notable achievements in overseas markets and new energy sectors [5] - A joint venture was established in Hangzhou to promote smart metering and new energy products internationally [5] - The company has successfully bid for seven segments of charging station products, expanding its application in various scenarios [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 200 million yuan, 230 million yuan, and 280 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4%, 16%, and 19% respectively [6] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20, 17, and 15 times for the years 2025 to 2027 [6]