软商品日报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: White star [1] - Timber: White star [1] - Natural Rubber: White star [1] - 20 - rubber: White star [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is still volatile, with a cautious view on the upside space. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Due to the possible shortfall in Brazil's sugar production, the US sugar price may stabilize and rebound in the short term, and has not bottomed out in the medium term. Domestic Zhengzhou sugar is weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3]. - The futures price of apples continues to rise with increasing long - short divergence. The market is bullish in the short term, but there is insufficient bullish drive on the supply side in the medium and long term. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - The demand for rubber is expected to weaken in the short term, the supply increases, the natural rubber inventory continues to decline, and the synthetic rubber inventory rebounds. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The pulp supply is relatively loose, the demand is average, and it is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6]. - The supply - demand situation of logs has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined slightly today, with stable basis of inland cotton spot and light trading. In July, domestic cotton imports were 50000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 149400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22600 tons. A 200000 - ton sliding - duty processing trade quota was issued, which can relieve the cost pressure on some export enterprises. The market expects a large pre - sale volume of new cotton, but the impact is expected to be controllable. The short - term trend is volatile, and it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of Brazil's central - southern region in the second half of July were bullish. In the short term, the US sugar price may rebound, and it has not bottomed out in the medium term. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. This year's sales rhythm was fast, with lower inventory. The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the output estimate of the next crushing season. The output of the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and attention should be paid to the weather and sugarcane growth [3]. Apple - The futures price continued to rise with increasing long - short divergence. The price of early - maturing apples is high, increasing the market's bullish sentiment. However, the supply - side increase in the 25/26 quarter is not significant, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated and rose today. The current prices of domestic natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly. The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded last week. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires and semi - steel tires rebounded, and the tire enterprises' finished - product inventory increased. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber rebounded, and the butadiene port inventory declined. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Pulp - The pulp futures continued to decline today. As of August 28, 2025, the mainstream imported sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 2.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. The global pulp shipment to China in June was 1.6119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the supply is loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade within a range [6]. Timber - The futures price of logs fluctuated, and the mainstream spot price remained stable. The log arrival volume decreased last week, and the domestic import is not expected to increase significantly in the short term. The daily port outbound volume is about 60000 cubic meters, and the inventory is 3.05 million cubic meters as of August 22, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33%. The supply - demand situation has improved, but the peak - season demand has not started. It is recommended to wait and see [7]