美豆丰产预期持续，油脂调整压力仍大

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Volatile in the short term, with a high probability of stronger performance in the medium term [5] - Protein Meal: Volatile with an internal-weak and external-strong pattern. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies for hedging, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7] - Corn/Starch: Volatile, with a short-term rebound and a long-term expectation of price decline due to increased supply [7][8] - Pigs: Volatile. The spot and near-term contracts are expected to remain weak, while the far-term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] - Natural Rubber: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term [9][10] - Synthetic Rubber: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term [11] - Cotton: Volatile and tending to strengthen in the short term, with a price range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] - Sugar: Volatile and tending to weaken in the long term, with a short-term trading range of 5,550 - 5,750 yuan/ton [13] - Pulp: Volatile, with the main contract remaining weak [15] - Logs: Volatile and tending to weaken, with the option to buy the far-month 11 contract on dips in the range of 790 - 840 [16] 2. Core Views of the Report - The continuous expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US exerts pressure on the oils and fats market, but factors such as increased biodiesel demand and potential reduction in US soybean yield may support the market in the medium term [5] - The rapid decline in soybean import crushing margins has led to a focus on the support at the integer level for soybean meal. The market shows an internal-weak and external-strong pattern [7] - The increase in forward orders has led to a rebound in the corn futures market, but the long-term expectation is for prices to decline due to increased supply [7][8] - The pig market is under inventory pressure, with the spot and near-term contracts remaining weak. The far-term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] - The natural rubber market is in a seasonally rising period, with support from both macro and fundamental factors, and is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen in the short term [9][10] - The synthetic rubber market follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the tight supply of its raw material, butadiene [11] - The cotton market has strong support at the current stage due to low inventory and improved demand, but may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] - The sugar market is under pressure from increased supply, with a long-term expectation of price decline and short-term volatility [13] - The pulp market shows a divergence between the near and far contracts, with the main contract remaining weak [15] - The log market has a marginal improvement in fundamentals but faces pressure from new warehouse receipts and low buyer willingness [16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - Market Situation: US soybean futures were volatile and bearish on Wednesday due to the expectation of a bumper harvest, and domestic oils and fats continued to adjust downward on Thursday, with palm oil being relatively weak [5] - Macro Environment: The market is concerned about the impact of US economic data on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. The US dollar rose and then fell on Wednesday, and crude oil prices rose due to a larger-than-expected decline in US crude oil inventories [5] - Industry Analysis: US soybeans are growing well, and the market is sensitive to weather. The new US biodiesel policy is expected to benefit US soybean oil demand, but the demand has decreased year-on-year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, and soybean oil inventory may peak. Malaysian palm oil is likely to continue to accumulate inventory in August, and the demand for palm oil from Indonesian biodiesel may be better than expected. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining but remains high year-on-year [5] - Outlook: The adjustment pressure on oils and fats remains large in the near term, but there is a high probability of stronger performance in the medium term [5] 3.2 Protein Meal - Market Data: On August 28, 2025, the international soybean trade premium quotes showed different changes. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing was 89.69 yuan/ton, with a significant week-on-week decline [6] - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the good rate of US soybeans has recovered, and the weather in the US soybean-producing areas is generally favorable. Brazilian soybean exports have peaked, and the premium has been falling. Domestically, the import crushing margin has declined rapidly, and the state reserve will auction 164,000 tons of imported soybeans on August 29. The supply gap risk before December has significantly decreased, and the demand for soybean meal may increase steadily [7] - Outlook: The market maintains an internal-weak and external-strong pattern. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies for hedging, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [7] 3.3 Corn/Starch - Market Information: The average price of domestic corn was 2,351 yuan/ton, with a slight decline. The closing price of the main contract was 2,185 yuan/ton, with a 0.97% increase [7] - Logic Analysis: The supply of old corn is tightening, but the supply of new corn will gradually increase. The demand side has some replenishment needs, and there is a risk of a late rebound. The long-term expectation is for prices to decline due to increased supply [7][8] - Outlook: In the short term, there is uncertainty in the destocking of old corn, and there is an expectation of price decline during the peak period of new corn listing. In the long term, the expectation of tight supply supports the idea of low-price buying [7][8] 3.4 Pigs - Market Information: On August 28, the price of live pigs in Henan was 13.64 yuan/kg, with a 0.59% increase. The closing price of the futures contract was 13,590 yuan/ton, with a 1.13% decrease [8] - Logic Analysis: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, and the inventory pressure is high. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to guide the industry to eliminate excess capacity, but the implementation needs to be observed [8] - Outlook: The market is volatile, with the spot and near-term contracts remaining weak and the far-term contracts supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [8] 3.5 Natural Rubber - Market Situation: The natural rubber futures market was strong on Thursday, with prices rising [9] - Logic Analysis: The natural rubber market is in a seasonally rising period, with various speculative themes. The short-term supply of ships may decrease, and the demand is rigid. The supply increase may be postponed due to heavy rainfall in the producing areas [9][10] - Outlook: The macro sentiment is favorable, and the fundamentals are supportive in the short term. The rubber price is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen [9][10] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Market Situation: The BR futures market rebounded following the trend of natural rubber [11] - Logic Analysis: The synthetic rubber market follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the tight supply of its raw material, butadiene. The supply of butadiene has decreased due to some device maintenance and production reduction, and the demand from the main downstream industries is stable [11] - Outlook: The price of butadiene is expected to rise slightly in the short term, and the futures market is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen [11] 3.7 Cotton - Market Information: As of August 28, the number of registered warehouse receipts for the 24/25 cotton year was 6,720. The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts showed a decline [12] - Logic Analysis: The current commercial inventory of cotton is at a relatively low level, and the demand is improving. The expected increase in the purchase price of seed cotton by upstream ginneries will support the futures price. However, the expected increase in production in the new year may put pressure on prices [12] - Outlook: The cotton price is expected to be volatile and tend to strengthen in the short term, with a price range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It may face downward pressure after the new cotton is listed [12] 3.8 Sugar - Market Information: As of August 28, the closing prices of Zhengzhou sugar futures contracts showed a decline [13] - Logic Analysis: Internationally, the new sugar season is expected to have an oversupply situation, with Brazil's sugar production increasing and Thailand and India also expected to have higher yields. Domestically, the import volume of sugar has increased, leading to an increase in supply [13] - Outlook: In the long term, the sugar price is expected to decline due to the expected oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile within the range of 5,550 - 5,750 yuan/ton [13] 3.9 Pulp - Market Information: The prices of some pulp varieties in Shandong showed a decline [15] - Logic Analysis: The pulp futures market showed a divergence between the near and far contracts, with the main contract continuing to decline. The decline is mainly attributed to the delivery pressure of the 09 contract. The supply and demand situation has not changed significantly, with the broadleaf pulp market showing a marginal improvement [15] - Outlook: The pulp market is expected to be volatile, with the main contract remaining weak [15] 3.10 Logs - Market Situation: The log market was weak this week, with the 09 contract adjusting downward [16] - Logic Analysis: The fundamentals of the log market have improved marginally, with a reduction in supply pressure and an increase in cost. However, the new warehouse receipts and low buyer willingness may put pressure on the market [16] - Outlook: The log market is expected to be volatile and tend to weaken. It is recommended to buy the far-month 11 contract on dips in the range of 790 - 840 [16]