中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌互现，股指板块集体飘红-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The expectation of monetary easing supports market risk appetite. In China, the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is not high, and market risk appetite may also be supported. Short - term market volatility may increase as important events approach and economic growth slows [7]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. Domestic market sentiment may remain high until early September, after which the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut is strengthening, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to become looser [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term but face employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. Powell's speech at the annual meeting was dovish, strengthening market expectations of interest rate cuts. US consumer confidence deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In the real estate sector, new housing starts increased steadily in July, while building permit issuance continued to decline [7]. - Domestic Macro: The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened marginally, but it is still not difficult to achieve the annual economic target. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real estate policies. The probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased, and domestic demand remains at a reasonable level. The capital market remains loose, providing support for related assets [7]. - Asset Views: In the short - term, the domestic market may maintain high - level sentiment until early September. After important events, the pricing weight of fundamentals on assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has strengthened, and the overseas macro - monetary environment is expected to enter a "loose expectation + weak US dollar" repair channel. Short - term market volatility may increase [7]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Leveraged funds are crowded, and there is early profit - taking. The decline of incremental funds is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - Stock Index Options: The bearish side has strong betting. The deterioration of option market liquidity is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The capital market remains loose, and the yield curve steepens. Concerns include unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The expectation of a restart of the US interest rate cut cycle in September is positive for prices, but the impact of market risk appetite needs attention. Concerns include US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and there is no driving force for price increases. The rate of price decline in September is a concern. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel Products: The actual support is limited, and the futures prices are under pressure. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Iron Ore: The daily consumption of imported sinter has decreased, and prices are oscillating within a narrow range. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Coke: The eighth - round negotiation continues, and some coke enterprises are reducing production. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Coking Coal: Production has decreased, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Silicon Iron: The black chain is under pressure, and futures prices are weak. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Manganese Silicon: The sector remains weak, and futures prices are running weakly. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Glass: Spot sales and production are maintained, and some regions are promoting price stability through price increases. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Soda Ash: Supply has decreased in the short - term, and rigid demand remains. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The suspension of Sino - US tariffs has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed policies, weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Alumina: The spot market is weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Aluminum: Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and weaker - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Zinc: The prices of the black series have fallen, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [8]. - Lead: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Stainless Steel: The price of ferronickel has been rising, and the stainless - steel futures prices are correcting. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected growth in demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Tin: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. Concerns include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. - Industrial Silicon: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously volatile. Concerns include unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The game between bulls and bears continues, and prices are oscillating widely. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10]. - LPG: The cracking spread has stabilized. Attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Asphalt: Crude oil prices have fallen, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating downward. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: High - sulfur fuel oil prices are following the decline of crude oil. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Methanol: Port inventory has accumulated, but petrochemical news has provided short - term support. Methanol prices are oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream and downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Urea: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea prices are oscillating in the short - term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: Low inventory and peak - season expectations resonate, providing strong support for prices at the lower end. Concerns include fluctuations in coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - PX: Emotional stimulation and peak - season promotion. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - PTA: Supply decreases and demand increases, with an expected inventory reduction from August to October. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - abnormalities, and less - than - expected peak - season demand. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - Short - Fiber: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. Concerns include the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device load reduction. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Bottle Chips: Inventory has declined, and processing fees are under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. Concerns include unexpected production increases by bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Propylene: In the short - term, it mainly follows the fluctuations of PP. Concerns include oil prices and the domestic macro - environment. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - PP: News related to Zhonghan Petrochemical has stimulated the market, but fundamental support is limited. PP prices are oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Plastic: News of anti - internal competition in the petrochemical industry has provided support, and plastic prices have strengthened slightly. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environments. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Styrene: Commodity sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - PVC: Market sentiment has improved, and PVC prices have weakly stabilized. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Caustic Soda and Oils: The rebound of spot prices has slowed down, and short - term long positions in the near - month contracts have taken profits. The expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in the US continues, and there is still significant pressure for oil price adjustments. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, demand, US soybean weather, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Protein Meal: The import and crushing profit of soybeans has declined rapidly. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer - level mark for soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, the macro - environment, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Corn/Starch: The decline of spot prices has slowed down, and futures prices have rebounded slightly. Concerns include weaker - than - expected demand, the macro - environment, and weather. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Pigs: Inventory pressure remains, and futures prices continue to be weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Rubber: Prices are following the market sentiment and falling, with little change in its own situation. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: Futures prices are following the decline of natural rubber. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [10]. - Pulp: Prices have been continuously declining, possibly due to pricing based on spruce. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Cotton: Cotton prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the expected purchase price. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Sugar: The short - term supply pressure has increased, and sugar prices continue to decline. Concerns include imports. The short - term outlook is oscillatory [10]. - Logs: Delivery pressure remains high, and log prices are adjusting weakly. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term outlook is oscillatory downward [10].