商品期货早班车-20250829

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The independence of the Federal Reserve is challenged, the logic of de - dollarization remains unchanged, and the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased significantly. Gold and silver are recommended for long - positions. For base metals, copper and tin are recommended for buying on dips, aluminum for buying on dips with an expected price increase, while zinc for short - selling on rallies, and lead for range - bound trading. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see as the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. For polycrystalline silicon, pay attention to the implementation of production limits during the transition period [1][2][3]. - In the black industry, close short positions in the rebar 2510 contract, and mainly wait and see for iron ore and coking coal [4]. - In the agricultural products market, short - term US soybeans are strong, while the domestic market is weak in the short - term. Corn futures are expected to fluctuate after a continuous decline. For sugar, short on the futures market and sell call options. For cotton, buy on dips. For palm oil, it is still bullish but difficult to trade after the valuation increase. For eggs, wait and see due to strong supply and weak demand. For live pigs, the spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and wait and see for futures. For apples, wait and see as the current price is mainly in a range - bound state [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and supply will be more abundant in the long - term, so it is recommended to short far - month contracts on rallies. PVC and glass are recommended to wait and see as the supply - demand situation is weak but the downside is limited. Rubber is recommended to hold long positions. PP is expected to be range - bound and weak in the short - term and supply will be more abundant in the long - term, so short far - month contracts on rallies. For crude oil, look for short - selling opportunities at around 500 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. For styrene, it is expected to be range - bound and weak in the short - term and supply will be more abundant in the long - term, so short far - month contracts on rallies. For soda ash, wait and see as the downside is limited. For caustic soda, it is recommended to go long as the supply - demand is healthy [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - Gold: Prices continued to rebound on Thursday. The US second - quarter GDP was revised up, and initial jobless claims decreased. The independence of the Federal Reserve is challenged, and the probability of an interest rate cut has increased. Domestic gold ETF funds had a small inflow. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - Silver: Followed gold's trend. As it is on the US critical minerals list, there is a threat of increased tariffs, and there are short - term long - position opportunities [1]. Base Metals - Copper: The price oscillated strongly. The dollar index weakened due to concerns about Trump's intervention in the Fed's independence. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and it is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Aluminum: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased slightly. The supply of electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the demand (aluminum product start - up rate) increased slightly. It is expected that the price will increase and recommended to buy on dips [1]. - Alumina: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply of alumina was stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The fundamental situation is in surplus, and it is not advisable to short aggressively. If holding spot, sell call options [1][2]. - Zinc: The price of the main contract decreased. The supply increased significantly, the processing fee increased, and the consumption was in the off - season. The domestic social inventory increased, while the LME inventory decreased. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. - Lead: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The supply is expected to tighten, but the current spot circulation is still abundant. The consumption peak season has not recovered significantly, and the social inventory has accumulated. It is recommended for range - bound trading [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The price of the main contract increased. The supply increased, and both social and warehouse receipt inventories decreased slightly. The demand for polysilicon increased slightly, while the production of silicone decreased. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy was in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see as the price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 9200 [2]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The price of the main contract increased. The production increased in August, and the inventory decreased significantly. The downstream product prices were stable, and the third - quarter photovoltaic installation demand was pessimistic. Pay attention to the implementation of production limits during the transition period, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 [2]. - Tin: The price oscillated strongly. The dollar index weakened. The supply of tin ore was tight in the short - term, but there was an expectation of increased supply. It is recommended to buy on dips [2][3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The apparent demand and production of rebar both increased. The supply - demand of building materials was slightly weak, while the demand for plates was stable. The overall supply - demand of steel was balanced, but there was obvious structural differentiation. Close short positions in the rebar 2510 contract, and the reference range for RB10 is 3080 - 3160 [4]. - Iron Ore: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The port inventory decreased, and the iron - making water production decreased slightly. The supply - demand of iron ore was slightly strong, but the marginal situation weakened. The futures valuation was high. It is recommended to wait and see, and the reference range for I09 is 765 - 795 [4]. - Coking Coal: The price of the main contract increased slightly. The iron - making water production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profit margin narrowed. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, but the fundamentals were improving. The futures valuation was high. Close short positions in the coking coal 2601 contract, and the reference range for JM01 is 1120 - 1180 [4]. Agricultural Products Market - Soybean Meal: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose slightly. The near - term US soybean production decreased, while the long - term South American production is expected to increase. The short - term US soybeans are strong, while the domestic market is weak in the short - term and depends on tariff policies in the medium - term [5]. - Corn: The price of the 2511 contract rebounded, while the spot price decreased. Wheat substitutes for corn in feed demand, and the import of grains increased the market supply. The futures are expected to fluctuate after a continuous decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Sugar: The price of the 01 contract decreased slightly. Internationally, Brazil's high production is the main factor pressing down the raw sugar price. Domestically, the spot price has stabilized. Short on the futures market and sell call options [6]. - Cotton: Overnight US cotton futures rose. Internationally, US cotton exports increased, and India extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs. Domestically, the spot is in short supply. Buy on dips [6]. - Palm Oil: The price of palm oil decreased. The supply is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand has improved. The overall supply and demand are increasing, with inventory accumulation in the near - term and a tight expectation in the long - term. It is still bullish but difficult to trade after the valuation increase [6]. - Eggs: The price of the 2510 contract continued to decline, and the spot price decreased slightly. The egg - laying rate decreased seasonally, the demand from food factories increased seasonally, but the supply was abundant. It is recommended to wait and see due to strong supply and weak demand [6]. - Live Pigs: The price of the 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price increased in the north and decreased in the south. The consumption is increasing, the supply is abundant, and the state reserve purchase has started. The spot price is expected to stop falling and stabilize, and wait and see for futures [6]. - Apples: The price of the main contract increased. The price of early - maturing apples has decreased, but fruit farmers still have expectations for the price of late - maturing apples. The current price is mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - LLDPE: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply increased, the import decreased, and the demand for agricultural films is in the peak season and is improving. In the short - term, it is range - bound, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more abundant, so short far - month contracts on rallies [8]. - PVC: The price of the V01 contract decreased. The supply increased, the export is expected to weaken, and the social inventory increased. The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Rubber: The price of the main contract increased. The inventory continued to decrease, and the raw material support is strong. It is recommended to hold long positions [8]. - Glass: The price of the FG01 contract decreased. The supply is expected to increase slightly, the inventory decreased, and the downstream demand is still weak. The supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - PP: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply increased, the export window opened, and the demand is in the peak season and is improving. In the short - term, it is range - bound and weak, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more abundant, so short far - month contracts on rallies [10]. - Crude Oil: The price increased at night. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand peak season is coming to an end. The month - spread is weakening, and look for short - selling opportunities for the SC main contract around 500 yuan/barrel [10]. - Styrene: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the peak season and is improving, and the downstream inventory is still high. In the short - term, it is range - bound and weak, and in the long - term, the supply - demand will be more abundant, so short far - month contracts on rallies [10]. - Soda Ash: The price of the sa01 contract remained unchanged. The supply has some maintenance, the inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The downside is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Caustic Soda: The price of the sh01 contract decreased slightly. The traditional demand is in the peak season, the inventory decreased, and the supply - demand is healthy. It is recommended to go long [12].