甲醇日评：回归偏弱基本面-20250829

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As coking coal prices decline, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state. Upstream coal profits remain high, while inland downstream profits are still poor, leaving room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. In terms of drivers, the return of inland and imported supply exerts downward pressure on methanol prices. Currently, downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and are unlikely to build further inventories. Port inventory accumulation is a likely trend, and the upward driving force for methanol is not strong [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: On August 28, 2025, MA01 closed at 2373 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2383 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.72%); MA09 closed at 2225 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.98%) [1] - Methanol Spot Prices: On August 28, 2025, the daily average price in Taicang was 2232.50 yuan/ton, down 17.50 yuan/ton (-0.78%); in Shandong, it was 2295.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.22%); in Guangdong, it was 2260.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.33%); in Shaanxi, it was 2115.00 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan/ton (-0.12%); in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 2180.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hubei, it was 2340.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2055.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-0.36%) [1] - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 140.50 yuan/ton, down 18.50 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] 2. Cost and Profit - Raw Material Prices: On August 28, 2025, the price of Datong Q5500 coal was 555.00 yuan/ton, down 7.50 yuan/ton (-1.33%); the price of Yulin Q6000 coal was 557.50 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan/ton (-0.89%); the industrial natural gas price in Hohhot was 3.21 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged; in Chongqing, it was 3.14 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [1] - Methanol Production Profits: On August 28, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol was 432.60 yuan/ton, down 3.70 yuan/ton (-0.85%); the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol was - 462.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the profit of Northwest MTO was 423.20 yuan/ton, up 40.20 yuan/ton (10.50%); the profit of East China MTO was - 260.07 yuan/ton, down 7.00 yuan/ton (-2.77%) [1] - Methanol Downstream Profits: On August 28, 2025, the profit of acetic acid was 309.06 yuan/ton, up 20.27 yuan/ton (7.02%); the profit of MTBE was 4.08 yuan/ton, down 26.24 yuan/ton (-86.54%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 291.60 yuan/ton, up 4.80 yuan/ton (1.62%); the profit of another product was 142.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00 yuan/ton (10.94%) [1] 3. Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range. It opened at 2372 yuan/ton, closed at 2373 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 461,214 lots, and open interest was 785,833 lots, with volume decreasing and open interest increasing. All contracts had trading volume during the trading day [1] - Foreign Information: A 1.65 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country restarted, and some methanol plants increased their operating rates. Recently, the operating rate of methanol plants in that country has increased to around 79%, and daily production has continued to rise to a high level. Attention should be paid to the loading frequency and cargo flow direction [1] 4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA fluctuated within a range and closed at 2377 at night. With the decline of coking coal, methanol prices return to a weaker fundamental state [1]