全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第147期)-20250829

Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 147, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: August 27, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, expected around October, but anticipatory trading could bring signs of reversal in Q3 [6] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory allowances and low trading willingness; from September, rising pressure from compliance may drive prices up [6] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - CEA: Main targets show divergent trends, with 567,000 tons listed and 1.717 million tons in bulk transactions [4] - CCER: The listed agreement volume is 2,200 tons, and the average transaction price is 80 yuan/ton, down 2.42% [4][10] Strategies - Deficit enterprises are advised to make phased low - price purchases before the end of August [4] Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a real support for carbon price reversal, and anticipatory trading may bring forward the reversal time [6] - Carbon price trends are affected by the release of mandatory allowances, trading willingness, and compliance pressure at different times [6] Data Tables - CEA: Different vintages have different closing prices, price changes, and trading volumes. For example, CEA24 has a closing price of 69.78 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, and a bulk transaction average price of 62.17 yuan/ton [8] - CCER: The current average transaction price is 80 yuan/ton, with a 2.42% decline, a transaction volume of 2,200 tons, and a cumulative transaction volume of 250,160 tons [10]