国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, and agricultural products. It presents the latest price trends, fundamental data, and macro - industry news for each commodity, along with trend strength ratings to help investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities [2][7][13] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: After the JH meeting, Powell's dovish stance influenced the market. The trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook. Yesterday, the closing price of沪金2510 was 783.22 with a daily increase of 0.26%, and the night - closing price was 785.02 with a 0.29% increase [6][7][11] - Silver: It is expected to reach the previous high. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪银2510 was 9377 with a 0.77% increase, and the night - closing price was 9405 with a 0.90% increase [7][11] Base Metals - Copper: With the fall of the US dollar, the copper price rose. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铜主力合约 was 78,930 with a - 0.33% change, and the night - closing price was 78990 with a 0.08% increase [13][15] - Zinc: It shows a weak and oscillating trend. The trend strength is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锌主力 was 22170 with a - 0.63% change [16][17] - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. Yesterday, the closing price of沪铅主力 was 16910 with a 0.12% increase [19][20] - Tin: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the closing price of沪锡主力合约 was 272,680 with a 0.33% increase [22][25] - Aluminum: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of沪铝主力合约 was 20750 [26][28] - Alumina: There is an obvious supply surplus. The trend strength is - 1 [26][28] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [26][28] - Nickel: It runs in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of沪镍主力 was 120,990 [29][34] - Stainless Steel: It has a short - term low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of the stainless steel主力 was 12,850 [29][34] Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The inventory reduction is limited, and it is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [35][37] - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the upside space. The trend strength is - 1 [38][41] - Polysilicon: The upstream inventory is being reduced, and market information should be monitored. The trend strength is - 1 [39][41] - Iron Ore: Due to the repeated macro - expectations, it has a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of I2601 was 790.5 with a 1.93% increase [42] - Rebar: It has a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,129 with a 0.55% increase [44][47] - Hot - Rolled Coil: It has a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of HC2510 was 3,385 with a 0.83% increase [45][47] - Silicon Iron: Market information disturbances lead to a wide - range intraday oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [48][50] - Manganese Silicon: Market information disturbances lead to a wide - range intraday oscillation. The trend strength is 0 [48][50] - Coke: It has a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of J2601 was 1672.5 with a 0.2% increase [51] - Coking Coal: It has a wide - range oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The closing price of JM2601 was 1175 with a 1.8% increase [51] - Log: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [53][56] - Para - Xylene: The supply - demand is still in a tight balance, and it is in a high - level oscillating market [59] - PTA: The trend is weaker than expected. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on MEG [59] - MEG: A positive spread arbitrage on the monthly difference is suggested, with limited upside space [59] Others - LPG: The supply - demand remains loose, and it has a short - term weak oscillation [5] - Propylene: The supply - demand tightens, and the spot price is at a high level [5] - PVC: The trend still faces pressure [5] - Fuel Oil: The price continued to decline at night and remains weak in the short term [5] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The decline in the domestic market continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the foreign spot market has temporarily stabilized [5] - Short - Fiber: The raw material support weakens, and it oscillates weakly [5] - Bottle Chip: The raw material support weakens, and it oscillates weakly [5] - Offset Printing Paper: It oscillates at a low level and has limited upward momentum [5] - Pure Benzene: It oscillates weakly [5] - Palm Oil: There is no new fundamental driver, and it is waiting for a correction [5] - Soybean Oil: The trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter is suspended, and it is in a correction [5] - Soybean Meal: The US soybeans are stable, and the Dalian soybean meal oscillates [5] - Soybean No. 1: It oscillates [5] - Corn: It oscillates [5] - Sugar: It has a narrow - range consolidation [5] - Cotton: Pay attention to the new crop situation, and the futures price oscillates strongly [5] - Egg: The sentiment for the far - end is weak [5] - Live Pig: With the new delivery warehouse announcement, there is a basis market for the near - month contract [5] - Peanut: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [5]