尿素早评：关注逢低做多机会-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recommend a strategy of buying on dips for urea in the future, suggesting investors focus on the opportunity to buy the 01 contract on dips [1] - Currently, the urea price is oscillating at a low level, and the upstream profit is also relatively low, so the urea valuation is not high [1] - There are two possible upward drivers for the urea price in the second half of the year: supply - side has the expectation of old - device renovation (old devices over 20 years account for about 20%, and the current comprehensive urea operating rate is over 80% with limited idle capacity), and demand - side has the expectation of improved exports, especially optimistic about urea exports from September to October [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Price - On August 28, the closing prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 in Shandong were 1753 yuan/ton, 1789 yuan/ton, and 1702 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 16 yuan/ton (0.92%), 10 yuan/ton (0.56%), and - 5 yuan/ton (- 0.29%) compared to August 27 [1] Domestic Spot Price - On August 28, the domestic spot prices in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu were 1620 yuan/ton, 1720 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, 1730 yuan/ton, and 1720 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 10 yuan/ton (0.62%), 10 yuan/ton (0.58%), 0 yuan/ton (0.00%), 0 yuan/ton (0.00%), and 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) compared to August 27 [1] Basis and Spread - On August 28, the Shandong spot - UR basis was - 79 yuan/ton, unchanged from August 27; the 01 - 05 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, with a change of 6 yuan/ton compared to August 27 [1] Upstream Cost - On August 28, the anthracite prices in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong were 1000 yuan/ton, 900 yuan/ton, and unchanged compared to August 27 [1] Downstream Price - On August 28, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan were 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from August 27; the melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu were 5225 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged from August 27 [1] Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1737 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1762 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1737 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1753 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1753 yuan/ton, and the position was 221,600 lots [1]