对二甲苯：供需仍紧平衡，高位震荡市、PTA：趋势弱于预期，多PTA空MEGMEG，月差正套，上方空间有限

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: Affected by the weakening of oil prices, the PX price has dropped rapidly, but it remains in a tight - balance pattern with limited downside space. Although this week's PX trend was weaker than expected due to high domestic supply and unconfirmed maintenance plans, there is support from potential oil price rebounds and polyester sales volume at low prices. It is recommended to continue to focus on the positive spread position of monthly differentials and go long on PX and short on EB [6]. - PTA: Go long on PTA and short on MEG. This week's PTA trend was weaker than expected. Polyester bottle - chip factories will continue to cut production in September, and the PTA spot basis has weakened. However, PTA supply will be in a tight - balance or even a slight de - stocking situation in September, and the unilateral price is not considered to be in a trend - like decline [7]. - MEG: Do a 9 - 1 positive spread. There is significant pressure above 4600 for the 01 contract, and hedging is recommended at high prices. With low port arrivals in the past two weeks, port inventories have decreased. The basis is strong, and there is an economic incentive to take delivery for the 09 contract. Attention should be paid to the proportion of warehouse - receipt holdings and the 9 - 1 positive spread. There will be new production capacity from Yulong Petrochemical in October, so the 01 contract still faces supply - increase pressure, and it is advisable to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha rose at the end of the session. On the 28th, the PX price dropped. The Asian PX price fell on August 28 after more than a week of increase, due to the pressure of weakening crude - oil futures. The polyester industry provided little support for the PX price, with the downstream factory operating rate at about 89.9% this week, slightly lower than the previous week. There were bids and offers for October and November deliveries on the 28th, but no transactions were completed [3][4]. - PTA: In the Chinese mainland, Dushan Energy's 2.5 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, Sanfangxiang's 1.2 - million - ton plant was shut down, and the second line of its 3.2 - million - ton new plant was put into production with increased load. As of Thursday, the PTA load was 70.4%, and the calculated operating rate was around 76.1% [5]. - MEG: As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 75.13% (a 1.97% increase from the previous period), and the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic - acid catalytic hydrogenation method (syngas) was 77.74% (a 3.51% decrease from the previous period) [5]. - Polyester: This week, the operating load of large - scale domestic polyester industrial - yarn manufacturers remained basically stable, with individual slight adjustments. As of now, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is about 72%. There were both maintenance and start - up of polyester plants this week, and the overall polyester load was slightly adjusted locally. As of Thursday, the polyester load in the Chinese mainland was around 89.9%. A 180,000 - ton polyester plant in Changshu was shut down temporarily due to an accident, and the restart time is uncertain. On the 28th, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 44%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was locally increased, with an average of about 50% - 60% [5]. Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6886 | 4792 | 4465 | 6526 | 481.7 | | Change | - 0.78% | - 0.66% | - 0.36% | - 0.70% | 0.42% | | Monthly Spread (Yesterday's Closing Price) | 48 | - 56 | - 41 | - 96 | - 8.7 | | Monthly Spread (Change) | - 38 | - 16 | 5 | - 28 | - 1.4 | | Spot Price (Yesterday) | 848.67 (USD/ton) | 4775 (CNY/ton) | 4525 | 593.88 | 67.45 (USD/barrel) | | Spot Price (Change) | - 5.5 | - 62 | - 25 | 3.5 | 0.18 | | Spot Processing Fee (Yesterday) | 270.33 | 248.5 | 102.62 | - 88.83 | - 6.01 | | Spot Processing Fee (Change) | 1.16 | 13.1 | 16.36 | - 47.62 | 0 | [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend - intensity value ranging from - 2 to 2 [6].