碳酸锂日评：波动仍大，持仓注意保护-20250829

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate market is still highly volatile. Short - term supply and demand are both strong, with high lithium carbonate production, rising downstream demand, and social inventory depletion. The fundamentals have little change in the short term, and the market is easily affected by news. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. The recommended operation is short - term interval trading, and it is advisable to buy options to protect positions or buy straddle options [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1 Market Data - Futures Contracts: On August 28, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared with the previous day, with decreases of 900 yuan/ton, 860 yuan/ton, 760 yuan/ton, and 720 yuan/ton respectively. The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 805,585 lots (+75,940), and the position volume of the active contract was 347,063 lots (-4,259) [3]. - Spot Prices: The average price of 99.5% battery - grade domestic lithium carbonate was 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan/ton; the average price of 99.2% industrial - grade domestic lithium carbonate was 77,700 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan/ton. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other raw materials decreased [3]. - Inventory: The inventory was 28,957 tons (+1,480). The SMM lithium carbonate inventory showed that the inventory of smelters, downstream, and other sectors totaled 141,136 tons (-407) [3]. 3.2 Industry News On August 27, mining company KoBold Metals obtained seven mineral exploration licenses from the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo for lithium and related rare minerals. The licenses cover two regions, and the exploration focuses on lithium [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials changed little [3]. - Demand: Last week, the production of the lithium iron phosphate industry and ternary materials increased. In August, the production of lithium aluminate decreased, and the production schedule of lithium manganate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the month - on - month sales decreased; 3C shipments were average; in August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [3].