镍与不锈钢日评：宏观反复，驱动不足-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 28, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a low level, with the trading volume decreasing and the open interest decreasing. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The pure nickel fundamentals are loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - On August 27, the main contract of stainless steel fluctuated within a range, with the trading volume increasing and the open interest decreasing. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. Currently, the impact of macro - sentiment is relatively large. Although the fundamentals are loose, it takes time for the price to return to the fundamentals and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will still fluctuate with the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - Price and Trading Volume: On August 28, the Shanghai nickel main contract had a low - level oscillation. The trading volume was 129,831 lots (- 67,021), and the open interest was 92,205 lots (- 6,698). LME nickel rose 1.12%. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium decreased [2]. - Supply Side: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore increased, and port inventories were replenished. The loss of nickel - iron plants narrowed. In August, domestic production decreased, while production in Indonesia increased, leading to nickel - iron accumulation. In August, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profits decreased [2]. - Demand Side: Ternary material production increased; stainless - steel plant production increased; alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [2]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory increased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. Stainless Steel Market - Price and Trading Volume: On August 27, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated within a range. The trading volume was 128,526 lots (+ 25,799), and the open interest was 12,804 lots (- 5,355). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium decreased [2]. - Supply Side: In August, stainless - steel production increased [2]. - Demand Side: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - Cost: High - nickel pig iron prices rose, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [2]. - Inventory: SHFE inventory decreased, and last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 62,600 tons (+ 8,500) [2]. Industry News - On August 27, at the "Stakeholder Engagement in the Nickel Industry's Decarbonization Roadmap" FGD held by the Indonesian Metal and Mining Entrepreneurs Association, illegal mining was the core focus. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association pointed out that there are still loopholes in relevant regulations that need to be coordinated with ESG standards of some institutions [2].