宝城期货资讯早班车-20250829

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, down from 5.4% in the previous quarter but up from 4.7% in the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in July 2025 was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month but up from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - The year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in July 2025 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing an upward trend compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - In July 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of exports and imports were 7.2% and 4.1% respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The central government plans to establish a sustainable urban construction and operation financing system, and local governments are required to coordinate various funding channels [2] - Market regulators aim to strengthen law enforcement, guide enterprises to compete on quality, and establish a long - term mechanism to prevent irrational competition [2] - Multiple small and medium - sized banks have lowered RMB deposit interest rates, and deposit rates are expected to continue to decline [3] - China's total social logistics volume in the first seven months of this year was 201.9 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, but the growth rate slowed down [4] 2.2 Metals - On August 28, international precious metal futures generally rose due to concerns about the Fed's independence and inflation data [5] - In H1 2025, the lithium battery industry faced a supply - demand mismatch, and enterprise performance was polarized. For example, Tianqi Lithium expected to turn a profit, while Shengxin Lithium Energy and Jiangte Motor saw an increase in losses [5] - As of August 27, zinc, lead, and tin inventories decreased, while copper and nickel inventories increased [6] - As of August 28, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 0.57%, or 5.44 tons, to 967.94 tons [7] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The Dalian Commodity Exchange expanded the maximum quantity of standard warehouse receipts for coking coal at designated factories [8] - Coking enterprises in Henan Province implemented independent production restrictions [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On August 28, the U.S. crude oil futures contract rose. U.S. crude oil inventory decline exceeded expectations, and supply - side tensions were affected by Russia's export plan and Ukraine's attacks [9] - Russia's oil exports to India are expected to increase by 150,000 - 300,000 barrels per day in September [9] - Norway adjusted its natural gas production reduction plan [9] - Goldman Sachs expects an increase in oil surplus and a decline in Brent crude oil prices by the end of 2026 [10] - Russia imposed a temporary ban on gasoline exports from September 1 to 30 [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - The EU and the U.S. reached a tariff agreement, with the EU canceling some tariffs on U.S. industrial products and the U.S. reducing tariffs on EU automobiles [11][12] - India extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs until the end of December, which may support global cotton prices but also affect domestic cotton demand [12] - Canada's estimated rapeseed and wheat production in 2025 increased compared to last year [12] - The EU's forecast for the ending inventory of common wheat in the 2025/2026 season increased, while the available corn production decreased [13] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On August 28, the central bank conducted 416.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 163.1 billion yuan [14] 3.2 Key News - The central government released an opinion on promoting high - quality urban development, focusing on financing system construction [15][16] - China and Canada agreed to promote bilateral economic and trade relations through the Sino - Canadian Economic and Trade Joint Committee [16] - The list of the top 500 private enterprises in China in 2025 was released, with higher entry thresholds and increased business revenue and profit [17] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to support foreign trade enterprises in terms of finance, employment, and insurance [17] - China's total social logistics volume from January to July increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with strong demand in high - end manufacturing and green industries [17] - In July, China issued 1.2135 trillion yuan of local government bonds [17] - Multiple small and medium - sized banks lowered RMB deposit interest rates [18][19] - Residents' deposits are shifting to funds and wealth management products [19] - United Credit Rating was severely warned for violating rating consistency principles [19] - Japan's 2 - year Treasury bond auction demand hit a new low since 2009 [20] - The U.S. Q2 GDP and core PCE price index were revised upwards [20] - Fed Governor Lisa Cook sued President Trump over an attempted dismissal [20] - Fed Governor Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September [20] - Some bond - related events include equity transfers and management changes [21][22] - Some overseas credit ratings were adjusted [22] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - The A - share market's strength pressured the bond market, with rising bond yields and falling bond futures prices [23] - Most Vanke bonds rose, and the yields of bank "secondary and perpetual bonds" mostly increased [23] - The central bank's net investment led to a slightly looser inter - bank market liquidity [23] - The yields of U.S. and European bonds showed different trends [26][27] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose on August 28, and the U.S. dollar index fell [28] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the supply of securities firms' long - term subordinated bonds is expected to be stable, and short - term subordinated bonds have investment value [30] - CITIC Securities' research report shows that industrial enterprise profits improved in July, and some industries are expected to be structural highlights [30] - Changjiang Fixed Income indicates that the convertible bond market has diverse sources of incremental funds, and the market is showing a strong trend [31] 4. Stock Market News - A - share indices rebounded on August 29, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.14%, and the market turnover was 3 trillion yuan [33] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell on August 29, with net selling by southbound funds [33] - In H1 2025, mergers and acquisitions in the A - share market heated up, with traditional industries, intelligent manufacturing, and energy power being the top three popular sectors [34]