国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers short - to mid - term trend analyses and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc. Each product has its own market situation, with trends ranging from high - level oscillations, weakening trends, to short - term weakness [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Supply - demand remains in tight balance, with high - level oscillations. Affected by weak oil prices, the price dropped rapidly, but the downside is limited. Consider long PX and short EB, and focus on the positive spread position of the monthly difference [6][12]. - PTA: The trend is weaker than expected. Suggest long PTA and short MEG. In September, supply is in tight balance or with a slight inventory reduction, and the unilateral price is not considered to be in a trend - based decline [6][12]. - MEG: Do a positive spread of the 9 - 1 contract. The 01 contract faces supply pressure above 4600. The port inventory has decreased, and the basis is strong. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [12][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is in an oscillatory state. Rainfall in domestic production areas has affected raw material supply, causing raw material prices to remain high. The future raw material supply pressure is difficult to ease, and the raw material purchase price may continue to be strong [14][17]. Synthetic Rubber - The fundamentals are neutral, following the macro - environment. In the medium - term, it is in an oscillatory range. After the commodity sector returns to fundamental trading, the futures price is expected to correct to the fundamental valuation range [18][21]. Asphalt - The asphalt market has narrow - range oscillations. This week's production decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased. It follows the oil price and regional spot price differentials are oscillating steadily [22][36]. LLDPE - LLDPE is in an interval oscillation. Demand is improving due to the approaching peak season of the agricultural film industry. However, commodity sentiment has declined recently. In September, the maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical may relieve the supply pressure in the East China region [37][38]. PP - PP is in a medium - term oscillatory market. Short - term demand has improved, and the cost has rebounded. But in the long - term, the supply pressure will increase as the maintenance devices resume production and new production capacity expands [41][42]. Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short positions. Be bullish in the fourth quarter. Recently, the futures price has corrected due to near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports. But domestic demand is stable, and the key lies in the stocking rhythm before the alumina production capacity is put into operation [45][47]. Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillatory state. The supply of softwood pulp is in surplus, and demand substitution has occurred. The expected peak season demand is poor, and the inventory in ports is high, resulting in price fluctuations [51][55]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. Most regional prices are flat, with a slight increase in the Jiangsu market. The overall market trading is okay, and there are plans for sporadic price increases at the beginning of next month [57][58]. Methanol - Methanol's valuation has returned to a reasonable range, entering a short - term oscillatory pattern. The port and inland markets are both under pressure due to high supply and inventory [60][62]. Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price has slightly increased due to purchases by traders and downstream enterprises. The futures has certain speculative properties, but the upside space is limited due to the high - premium pattern [64][66]. Styrene - Styrene is bearish in the medium - term. In the short term, it oscillates mainly. The downstream raw material inventory is at a medium - to - high level, and the power for continuous restocking during the peak season is insufficient [67][68]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change, with a weak - stable oscillation. Alkali plant operations are stable, and downstream demand is tepid, with most customers in a wait - and - see attitude [69]. LPG, Propylene - LPG: Supply - demand remains loose, with short - term weak oscillations. - Propylene: Supply - demand tightens, and the spot price is at a high level [72][73]. PVC - PVC still faces pressure. The supply is at a high level, domestic demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and export growth may slow down [82]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The price continued to decline at night and remains weak in the short term. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The decline in the domestic market continues, and the price differential between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has temporarily stabilized [85]. Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip - Short - Fiber: The raw material support weakens, with a weakening oscillation. - Bottle Chip: The raw material support weakens, with a weakening oscillation [87]. Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper oscillates at a low level, with limited upward momentum. The market trading in Shandong and Guangdong is light, and the transaction price has declined [91][92]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene has a weakening oscillation. The port inventory has decreased, and the price has declined [93][94].