生猪：新交割库公示，近月基差行情

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided on the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The trend strength is -1, indicating a relatively bearish stance, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2]. - In August, the planned出栏 volume of group farms increased, small - scale farmers had passive backlogs, demand growth was limited, large - scale farms' efforts to reduce supply and support prices were ineffective, daily trading was poor, and it was difficult to absorb market supply. The supply pressure in the near - term was difficult to reverse, and the priority of the production - capacity cycle was higher than that of the inventory cycle. It is recommended to enter a 11 - 1 reverse spread trade. The state reserve purchase policy has been implemented, and during the passive inventory accumulation phase, supply pressure usually requires multiple rounds of state reserve purchases to be digested. The September contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost, and the industry's willingness to deliver has increased, so the premium - collection market continues. The sentiment for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered in March. Attention should be paid to the downward - moving driver of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; the Sichuan spot price is 13,350 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; the Guangdong spot price is 14,790 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 [1]. - Futures Prices: The price of the 'pig2509' contract is 13,300 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 145; the 'pig2511' contract is 13,590 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 155; the 'pig2601' contract is 13,940 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 140 [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the 'pig2509' contract is 2,887 lots, a decrease of 1,339 from the previous day, and the open interest is 4,118 lots, a decrease of 1,746 from the previous day. The trading volume of the 'pig2511' contract is 30,542 lots, an increase of 4,380 from the previous day, and the open interest is 74,963 lots, an increase of 3,370 from the previous day. The trading volume of the 'pig2601' contract is 13,435 lots, an increase of 2,826 from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,133 lots, an increase of 582 from the previous day [1]. - Basis and Spreads: The basis of the 'pig2509' contract is 480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 145; the 'pig2511' contract basis is 190 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 155; the 'pig2601' contract basis is - 160 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 140. The 9 - 11 spread of pigs is - 290 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 10 [1].