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棉花:关注新作情况,期价震荡偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-29 03:50

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton crops [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: - CF2601 closed at 14,070 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.04%, and 14,270 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 1.42%. Its trading volume was 288,889 lots, an increase of 26,527 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 700,389 lots, a decrease of 8,588 lots [1]. - CY2511 closed at 20,090 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.05%, and 20,175 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.42%. Its trading volume was 6,502 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 22,701 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - ICE Cotton No. 12 closed at 67.28 cents/pound yesterday with an increase of 0.95% [1]. - Warehouse Receipt Data: - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 7,762, a decrease of 67 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 249, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 69, a decrease of 5 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 74 from the previous day [1]. - Spot Price Data: - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.03% [1]. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,013 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price in Shandong was 15,358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.10% [1]. - The price in Hebei was 15,306 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan from the previous day with an increase of 0.06% [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,336 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.04% [1]. - The International Cotton Index: M: CNCottonM was 74.24 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.07 cents from the previous day with a decline of 0.09% [1]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,760 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan from the previous day with a decline of 0.15% [1]. - Spread Data: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was rather sluggish, with partial areas performing well, and the basis remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B, impurity within 3.5) was CF01 + 1150 - 1400, and most of the Southern Xinjiang lint was quoted at 1150 - 1300 for inland self - pick - up. The 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang Corps machine - picked cotton (4129/29~30B, impurity within 3) was traded around CF09 + 1700 for in - Xinjiang self - pick - up [1][2]. - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market slowed down. Spinning mills reported that orders were not as good as those in the middle of the month. The market mainly sold varieties of C40S and below, and the feedback on high - count yarn was average. Cotton yarn prices were mainly stable, and spinning mills had a certain willingness to hold prices, but high - priced transactions were difficult [1][2]. - US Cotton: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures rose slightly. After falling below 67 cents/pound again, commercial and technical buying pushed it to rebound. The weekly US cotton export sales data was still average. As of the week ending August 21, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the 25/26 season was 179,300 bales [1][2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]