棕榈油：基本面暂无新驱动，等待回调，豆油：四季度缺豆交易暂缓，回调整理

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: There is no new fundamental driver, waiting for a pullback [1] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has been suspended, undergoing a pullback and consolidation [1] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,344 yuan/ton (down 0.87% during the day, up 0.11% at night), soybean oil主力 at 8,442 yuan/ton (down 0.26% during the day, down 1.07% at night), and other futures prices also showed different changes [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all decreased [2] - Spot Prices: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged, soybean oil increased by 10 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton [2] - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 126 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 318 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was -104 yuan/ton [2] - Price Spreads: The spreads between different futures contracts of various oils showed different changes [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - USDA Drought Monitoring Report: As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 9% the previous week and the same as last year [3] - USDA Monthly Crushing Forecast: The estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July is expected to increase to 621.8 million short tons (2072 million bushels), a 5.1% increase from June and a 7.2% increase from July 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory at the end of July is 1903 million pounds, a 0.5% increase from the end of June and a 5.2% decrease from July 2024 [4][6] - Deral: The rural economic department of Brazil's Paraná state expects the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1% to about 5.8 million hectares, and the output may increase by 4% to about 22 million tons [6] - South Mato Grosso, Brazil: The sowing of the 2025/26 soybean crop will start on September 16 and may last until December 31 [6] - SAGyP: As of the week ending August 20, Argentine farmers sold 394,200 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 118,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 29.8956 million tons and 789,600 tons respectively [7] - Canada Statistics: The estimated rapeseed output in Canada in 2025 will increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, with different changes in yield per acre and harvested area in different provinces [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]