铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250829

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the upward revision of US economic resilience, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuous fermentation of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the market. The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%. Gold has reached 3400 points, and copper and oil prices have closed higher. Domestically, the A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, and the bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to challenge previous highs. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating. Zinc prices are in a volatile consolidation. Lead prices are difficult to break out of the current shock pattern. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Nickel prices are driven by macro - expectations to fluctuate. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may decline in the long term. Steel prices are in a volatile trend. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Bean and rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range. Palm oil may decline and adjust [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][19][20][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%, with strong business investment and net exports contributing nearly 5%. The Fed's independence faces a legal test. The dollar index has fallen to 97.9, and gold has reached 3400 points. Attention is paid to the US July PCE data tonight [2] - Domestic: The A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3800 points. The bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released [3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Thursday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3476.9 per ounce. Concerns about the Fed's independence, inflation data, and interest - rate cut expectations support the rise of precious metals. They are expected to challenge previous highs, and attention is paid to the PCE data tonight [4][5] Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The downstream replenishment has slightly increased, but the aluminum ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7] Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the alumina price is under pressure and fluctuating [8] Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and the social inventory increased. The short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9][10] Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the consumption improvement is limited, and the export expectation is weakened. The lead price is difficult to break out of the current shock pattern [11] Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated. Overseas low inventory and slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar support the tin price. It is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention is paid to the pressure at previous highs [12] Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the spot price weakened. The resource risk game continues, and the lithium price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - level dovish expectations continue, and the spot market has both positive and negative factors. The short - term fundamentals have no guidance, and the nickel price fluctuates under the influence of macro - expectations [15] Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil fluctuated. The market focuses on the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's sanctions. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a downward expectation in the long term [16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures rose and then fell. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan to continue the production reduction policy. The steel price is in a volatile trend [17][18] Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures rebounded. The supply is stable, and the demand has decreased. The post - parade replenishment expectation supports the price, and the iron ore price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean and rapeseed meal contracts fell. The new - crop export sales are 1.37 million tons. The US soybean production area has less precipitation, and the short - term bean meal may fluctuate within a range [20][21] Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell. The external oil market weakened, and the domestic oil is under pressure. The short - term palm oil may decline and adjust [22][23]