Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-29 04:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Haier Smart Home's H1 2025 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 156.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.03 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year. The company announced its first-ever interim dividend, proposing a distribution of 2.69 yuan per 10 shares, totaling over 2.5 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 21% [6][5] - The company aims to maintain a stable and gradually increasing dividend payout ratio as a long-term goal [6] - The domestic revenue growth for H1 2025 was 8.8%, while overseas revenue grew by 11.7%, with significant growth in emerging markets [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for Haier Smart Home is projected to be 305.13 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.7% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 21.55 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.30 yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 28.2% [5] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 24.78 billion yuan and 28.50 billion yuan in 2026 and 2027, respectively, maintaining a consistent growth rate of 15% [6][5]