综合晨报-20250829

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The overall market is in a complex state with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical risks, economic data, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations are key drivers. Some commodities are expected to be in a state of high - level or low - level oscillation, while others are at a turning point in their supply - demand relationship [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - Crude Oil: International oil prices are in a relative steady state due to the game between post - peak season supply - demand and short - term geopolitical risks. Further upward space is limited without a clear escalation of geopolitical events [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil futures are under pressure, but the fundamentals are relatively bullish as the inventory pressure is relieved. High - sulfur resources are supported by geopolitical premiums [22]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The international market rebounds, and the domestic market is in a repair phase. There is long - term overseas production increase pressure, leading to a near - strong and far - weak pattern in the futures market [24]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures show resistance to decline, with potential demand and low inventory providing support [23]. Metal Commodities - Precious Metals: Precious metals are oscillating strongly. Once the key resistance is broken, the upward trend may be sustainable. Attention should be paid to the US PCE data [3]. - Base Metals: - Copper: The copper price rises, but the integer - level resistance is strong. High - level short positions can be held [4]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum is oscillating, with the upper resistance at 21,000 yuan. The casting aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the alumina is weakly oscillating [5][6][7]. - Zinc: The zinc market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. A short - term rebound is possible, but the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The nickel price has a rebound intention, but the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking signs [10]. - Tin: The tin price continues to rise. The previous long positions can be held [11]. - Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron: Both are oscillating upward with weak rebound strength. The manganese silicon may see inventory accumulation in the long run, and the silicon iron follows the trend of manganese silicon [19][20]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level as the supply - demand relationship weakens marginally [16]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Both show price rebounds. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the prices are greatly affected by "anti - involution" policy expectations [17][18]. Chemical Commodities - Carbonate Lithium: The futures price is回调, and the market is in a state of relatively strong oscillation [12]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures are in an oscillating pattern, with limited upward space and high risk of shorting at the lower end of the range [13]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating, affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment of other varieties [14]. - Urea: The urea spot trading improves, but there is high supply - demand pressure [25]. - Methanol: The near - month methanol contract is weak, with high inventory in ports and increasing supply inland [26]. - Pure Benzene: The pure benzene market is in a weak balance, with expectations of improvement in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter [27]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: The PVC may oscillate weakly, and the caustic soda is expected to face pressure at high levels [28]. - PX and PTA: The PX is in a range - bound oscillation, and the PTA continues to weaken [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate within a range, and the upward drive is weakening [30]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip: The short - fiber may be considered for long - position allocation if the demand improves, and the bottle - chip industry has long - term over - capacity pressure [31]. Agricultural Commodities - Grains and Oils: - Soybean and Soybean Meal: The market may oscillate in the short term and is cautiously bullish in the medium - to - long term [35]. - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: They can be considered for buying at low prices in the medium - to - long term, with attention to soybean policies in the short term [36]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The futures prices have a narrow short - term fluctuation range, and it is advisable to wait and see [36]. - Corn: The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom, with a possible short - term rebound [38]. - Livestock and Poultry Products: - Pork: The pork futures are likely to continue the weak downward trend in the medium term [39]. - Eggs: The egg price cycle may turn around in the second half of this year, and it is advisable to consider long positions in the first half of next year's futures contracts [40]. - Cotton and Sugar: - Cotton: The international cotton market is oscillating, and the domestic cotton can be bought on dips [41]. - Sugar: The sugar price is expected to oscillate, with the international market having supply pressure and the domestic market having limited bullish factors [42]. - Fruits and Wood Products: - Apple: The apple price may continue to rise in the short term but lacks long - term supply - side support [43]. - Wood: The wood futures are oscillating, and it is advisable to wait and see [44]. - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp futures can be treated with a wait - and - see or range - bound oscillation strategy [45]. Financial Products - Stock Index: The A - share market rebounds, and it is advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [46]. - Treasury Bonds: The treasury bond futures fall, and the yield curve may become steeper [47].