Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 45.83 [5]. Core Insights - The company has seen a continuous improvement in the domestic data center business, with nearly 200MW of new orders accumulated by the end of 1H25, driven primarily by AI computing demand [2]. - The data center industry is currently in a cycle of improving supply and demand, with AI driving new demand and limited new supply due to strict project approvals in major cities [2]. - The company is successfully expanding its DayOne projects in Europe and Southeast Asia, aiming to sign contracts for 1GW capacity within three years [3]. - The successful issuance of the first domestic data center REITS project has garnered significant market attention, reflecting the capital market's recognition of quality digital infrastructure assets [3]. Summary by Sections Domestic Business Performance - By the end of 1H25, the company achieved nearly 200MW of new data center orders, with 150MW added in Q1 and 40MW in Q2, primarily from AI computing demand [2]. - The domestic data center business's deployment rate reached a historical high of 77.5% in Q2 2025, benefiting from the expansion of AI applications [2]. Industry Supply and Demand - The domestic data center industry is experiencing a continuous improvement in supply and demand dynamics, with AI contributing to increased demand [2]. - The limited new supply due to stringent energy consumption indicators in first-tier cities positions the company favorably due to its resource reserves [2]. International Expansion - As of Q2 2025, the company has an operational scale of 213MW and a cumulative signed capacity of 783MW, with plans to achieve 1GW capacity in three years [3]. - The company has successfully signed contracts for its Thailand project and has initiated construction of a second data center in Finland, indicating strong growth potential in Europe [3]. REITS Project - The Southern GDS REITS has been successfully listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a project valuation of HKD 2.4 billion and an implied EV/EBITDA valuation of 16.9 times [3]. - The public offering was highly subscribed, with an effective subscription multiple of 456 times, showcasing market confidence in quality digital infrastructure assets [3]. Financial Projections - The report maintains revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecasts, projecting adjusted EBITDA of RMB 5.29 billion, RMB 5.93 billion, and RMB 6.88 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The target valuation remains unchanged, with a SOTP valuation method applied, resulting in a target price of HKD 45.83 per share [4].
万国数据-SW（09698）：2025年秋季策略会速递：供需持续好转，DayOne拓展顺利