Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [7][22]. Core Views - The company is entering a performance realization phase with its Thailand operations, which are expected to drive future growth. The first phase of production has reached full capacity, and the second phase is under construction, set to launch in 2026 [4][5]. - Despite facing challenges from U.S. trade policies, the company is enhancing its overseas presence to mitigate risks and improve supply chain resilience. The initial ruling on anti-dumping and countervailing duties has been established, with the company successfully transitioning its production capacity overseas [5][7]. - The company is diversifying its product applications beyond food service items, including entry into high-end industrial packaging for electronics, cosmetics, and health products, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 675 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.57%, and a net profit of 117 million yuan, down 14.76%. The second quarter alone saw revenue of 303 million yuan, a decline of 17.87%, and a net profit of 44 million yuan, down 39.8% [3][6]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 31.6%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 17.3%, down 2.1 percentage points. The second quarter margins were further impacted, with gross and net margins at 28.5% and 14.62%, respectively [6][7]. - The company’s Thailand operations generated revenue of 61.98 million yuan and a net profit of 14.37 million yuan in the first half of 2025, achieving a net profit margin of 23.2%, which exceeds the previous year's levels [5][6]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted, with expected net profits of 312 million yuan, 529 million yuan, and 648 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. This reflects a year-on-year change of -4%, +70%, and +23% [7][8].
众鑫股份（603091）：泰国步入业绩兑现期，底部蓄力反转可期