蛋白数据日报-20250829

Group 1: Report Summary - Core view: Affected by the negative impact of the news of opening Australian rapeseed imports on rapeseed meal and the expectation of China-US talks, the soybean meal 01 contract showed weakness today and is expected to be range - bound in the short term. With the current poor crushing profit and the narrowing of the price difference between US soybeans and Brazilian soybeans to a normal range, there is limited downside space for M01 under cost support [6]. Group 2: Industry Data Basis Data - 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) on August 28: Dalian was 111 with a rise of 16; Tianjin was 21 with a rise of 6; Zhangjiagang had a rise of 6; Dongguan was -99 with a fall of -4; Zhanjiang was -79 with a fall of -14; Fangcheng was -59 with a fall of -14. Rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 22 with a rise of 19. M9 - 1 was -50 with a rise of 3 [4]. Spread Data - On August 28, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (in Guangdong) was 447 with a rise of 27, and the spread of the main contract was 376 [5]. Inventory Data - As of relevant time, domestic soybean inventory increased to a high level, the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation slowed down but was still in the inventory - building cycle, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises increased [6]. Supply and Demand Data Supply - USDA's August report raised the US soybean yield per acre from 52.5 to 33.6 (historical high), but unexpectedly reduced the planting area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was reduced from 310 million bushels in July to 290 million bushels. The Pro Farmer inspection results showed that the estimated yield per acre of new - crop US soybeans was 63 bushels, lower than the USDA's estimate. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans remained at 68%. In the next two weeks, there will be less rainfall in the production areas but lower temperatures, which may lead to an expected decline in the good - to - excellent rate. The expected arrival volume of domestic soybeans in August and September is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in the inventory - building cycle; the purchase of ships from October to January is slow, and there is an expected inventory reduction in the far - month under the current China - US trade policy [5][6]. Demand - In the short term, the high inventory of pigs and poultry is expected to support feed demand, but policy guidance to control the inventory and weight of pigs is expected to affect the far - month supply of pigs. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is used to replace corn, reducing the use of protein. This week, the downstream transactions of soybean meal were relatively cautious [6].