光大期货农产品日报-20250829

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various agricultural products show different trends. Corn is expected to be volatile, with the 11 - month contract under supply pressure but potentially rebounding around the 2200 - 2220 line. Soybean meal is also volatile, affected by factors such as weak US soybean prices, Sino - US talks, and state reserve auctions. Oils are volatile, with prices approaching important support levels. Eggs are in a weakly volatile state, with futures continuing to decline and the spot price affected by supply - side pressure. Pigs are volatile, with the futures market continuing to correct and the spot price showing regional differences [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: This week, the corn 2511 contract increased in position and rose slightly. The spot price was weak, with Northeast corn prices moving towards new - grain prices and continuing to decline. Shandong deep - processing enterprises' corn arrivals increased, and prices were slightly adjusted downwards. The market supply was diverse, but downstream demand was weak. Technically, the 11 - month contract was under supply pressure, but it was approaching the traders' expected storage cost range, with a short - term rebound pressure around 2200 - 2220 [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Thursday, CBOT soybeans rose, with US weekly export sales higher than expected. In Brazil, the 25/26 soybean planting in Santa Catarina will start on September 16, with uneven precipitation and higher - than - normal temperatures. In Paraná, the soybean planting area increased by 1%, and the output is expected to increase by 4%. Domestically, the two - meal market was weak, affected by multiple factors. The strategy is short - term trading, waiting for the results of Sino - US talks [1]. - Oils: On Thursday, BMD palm oil fell, but strong export demand and lower - than - expected production limited the decline. Canadian rapeseed production was estimated to increase. Domestically, oil futures prices were weak, and if they break through the important support level, the downward space will open. The strategy is short - term trading [1]. - Eggs: On Thursday, egg futures continued to decline. The spot price was also weak, with most prices in the sales areas stable and a few slightly fluctuating. According to the seasonal pattern, egg prices should rebound in late August, but due to supply - side pressure, they continued to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in terminal demand and market sentiment [1][2]. - Pigs: On Thursday, hog futures continued to correct. The spot price showed regional differences, with a slight increase in the north and a decline in the south. The fundamentals and market sentiment changed little, and the price is expected to be volatile. The main contract has corrected to the lower edge of the shock range, and attention should be paid to whether future demand and market sentiment can boost the market [2]. Market Information - In July 2025, the national industrial feed output was 28.31 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The ex - factory prices of different types of feed showed different trends, and the proportion of corn and soybean meal in feed production was given [3]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the addition of new group delivery sub - warehouses and non - group delivery warehouses for live pigs [3]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's delegation visited Canada and the US. China is willing to work with the US to maintain the healthy and stable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [3]. - As of the week of August 20, Argentine farmers sold a certain amount of soybeans in different years, with the total cumulative sales reaching 71.4794 million tons [4]. - The result of the China Grain Reserves Corporation's rapeseed oil bidding procurement on August 28 was a 100% transaction rate [4]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report presents the 1 - 5 spreads of various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [6][7][11][15]. - Contract Basis: The report shows the basis of various agricultural products such as corn, soybean, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and pigs through multiple charts [14][17][19][24].