美豆产区干旱影响有限，油脂盘面震荡

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Core View - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. Although the drought - affected area in the US soybean - producing areas has expanded recently, the overall proportion is still small, the drought intensity is mild, and the crop growth indicators remain at a good level, so the impact is limited. The sharp decline in international crude oil prices has depressed vegetable oil prices, but the consumption during the Double Festival will provide some support to the market [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9414.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 86 yuan and a decline of - 0.91%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8372.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 18.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.21%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9809.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 44.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.45% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9360.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 110.00 yuan and a decline of - 1.16%. The spot basis was P01 + - 54.00, with a环比 change of - 24.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8510.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 40.00 yuan/ton and a decline of - 0.47%. The spot basis was Y01 + 138.00, with a环比 change of - 22.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9880.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of - 70.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.70%. The spot basis was OI01 + 71.00, with a环比 change of - 26.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the US soybean - planting area was affected by drought (9% the previous week and 11% last year). About 5% of the US corn - planting area was affected by drought (5% the previous week and 8% last year) [2] - The Rural Economy Department of Paraná State, Brazil (Deral) expects the soybean - planting area in the state in the 2025/26 season to be about 5.8 million hectares, a 1% increase from the previous season. The soybean yield in the state is expected to increase by 4% to about 22 million tons [2] - The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season were - 189,000 tons ( - 6,000 tons the previous week), and the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 1.373 million tons (1.143 million tons the previous week). The net export sales of US corn in the 2024/2025 season were - 18,000 tons ( - 27,000 tons the previous week), and the net sales in the 2025/2026 season were 2.09 million tons (2.86 million tons the previous week) [2] - According to the Canadian Statistics Bureau's model - based yield forecast report, as of the end of July 2025, the estimated yield of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is 19.9 million tons (the average estimate is 20.3 million tons, and the report in August last year was 19.5 million tons). The estimated yield of Canadian wheat in 2025 is 35.5 million tons (the average estimate is 35.9 million tons, and the report in August last year was 34.4 million tons) [2] Group 4: Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3]